NFL Week 5 Betting Preview: Picks and Analysis for Every Game
Dave Blezow offers his predictions against the spread for all Week 5 matchups, highlighting key games and potential upsets.
As the NFL season progresses into Week 5, handicapper Dave Blezow has released his predictions and best bets for every game, providing analysis on matchups, team performance, and betting lines.
Key Matchups and Predictions
The New York Giants, currently leading the NFC East at 3-1, face the 1-3 Washington Commanders. Despite their winning record, the Giants have secured victories through close calls, raising questions about their true strength against better opposition. The Commanders, meanwhile, are getting quarterback Jayden Daniels back from an elbow injury and showed flashes of offensive capability even with backups. "The Commanders have the better quarterback, if healthy. The Giants have the better head coach," Blezow notes, ultimately leaning towards the Giants as underdogs in this contest.
In another notable game, the New York Jets, seeking to break a three-game losing streak, are favored against the Cleveland Browns. DVOA metrics suggest a strong defensive advantage for the Jets. "With Aaron Glenn coaching for his job, I figure this week will be the best version of the Jets, whatever that is," Blezow predicts, favoring the Jets to cover the spread.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are favored by a touchdown against the Philadelphia Eagles, who are dealing with significant injuries to key offensive players like Saquon Barkley and DeVonta Smith, compounded by offensive line issues. The Jaguars' experience with playing in London could also be a factor.
Las Vegas Raiders, a surprising 4-0 against the spread this season, are set to face the New England Patriots. With the Raiders boasting a strong pass defense, points are expected to be taken with them as underdogs.
The Miami Dolphins, despite a winless record, are seen as a potential upset candidate against the Cincinnati Bengals, especially if the Bengals are without key receivers Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. The warm Miami weather could also play a role.
Two winless teams, the Tennessee Titans and Houston Texans, face off, with the Titans holding an advantage against the spread. Blezow is banking on a coaching adjustment to help the Titans cover a significant spread.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are favored against the Indianapolis Colts. Last week's performance by the Colts in London is considered potentially misleading, and the Steelers' defense will aim to contain Jonathan Taylor.
Divisional and Conference Clashes
The Minnesota Vikings are favored against the New Orleans Saints, who are on a short week after a blowout loss. The Vikings' defense, led by Brian Flores, poses a challenge for young quarterback Tyler Shough.
The Chicago Bears are predicted to defeat the Green Bay Packers, with the Bears' coaching staff reportedly having a specific game plan for their rivals. Despite recent struggles, the Bears are considered on a higher level than the Packers' current performance indicates.
The Denver Broncos are favored against the Los Angeles Chargers, who are facing offensive line injuries and potential absences of key playmakers. The Broncos' offense, under Sean Payton's play-calling, is expected to improve its first-half production.
The Arizona Cardinals are predicted to cover the spread at home against the Detroit Lions, despite the Lions' strong record as favorites off a loss.
In a NFC West matchup, the San Francisco 49ers are expected to cover as underdogs against the Seattle Seahawks. While the Seahawks have a strong home-field advantage, the 49ers have a recent history of success in Seattle.
The Atlanta Falcons, despite being favored, are not fully trusted by Blezow, who is taking the Baltimore Ravens with points, even with Lamar Jackson's potential absence.
Monday Night Football
The Los Angeles Rams are favored in a highly anticipated Monday night game against the Buffalo Bills. The Bills' struggles against the run could be exploited by the Rams' offense, potentially setting up opportunities for their playmakers.
Blezow's best bets for the week include the Titans, Dolphins, and 49ers, with the Titans being his "lock of the week."