NFL Urges Supreme Court to Regulate Prediction Markets, Citing Cheating Concerns
The league argues that current oversight by the CFTC is insufficient and leaves consumers vulnerable, potentially compromising game integrity.
The National Football League (NFL) has taken its fight against prediction markets to the Supreme Court, arguing that these platforms function as gambling operations and should be regulated at the state level. In a legal argument supporting New Jersey regulators' petition to oversee Kalshi, a prediction market, the NFL contends that the current oversight by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is inadequate and leaves consumers exposed.
The NFL's position is not to oppose prediction markets outright, but to advocate for enhanced consumer protection through state-level regulation. A key issue, according to the league, is that prediction markets categorize themselves as 'exchanges' rather than 'sportsbooks,' allowing them to operate with fewer taxes and less stringent state prohibitions. Instead, they fall under the purview of the CFTC, a situation the NFL disputes.
In its brief, the NFL stated that if the CFTC had adopted regulations similar to those already in place in many states, the current case would be largely irrelevant. However, the league claims that despite repeated requests, the CFTC and prediction markets like Kalshi have resisted implementing commonsense measures. Specifically, the NFL is concerned about certain types of wagers that are highly susceptible to manipulation.
Unlike regulated online sportsbooks such as FanDuel and DraftKings, which adhere to customer protection agreements, prediction markets have not. The NFL argues that contracts for wagers on elements like field goals, player or fan misconduct, or the timing of penalties pose a threat to game and market integrity.
The league stressed the urgency of the matter, urging the Supreme Court to grant certiorari promptly to provide clarity before another NFL season commences. The NFL estimates that billions of dollars are wagered on its games through prediction markets each season, and any delay risks increasing consumer harm and jeopardizing the integrity of the sport.
According to the NFL's filing, Kalshi has generated substantial revenue. From January through August, Kalshi reportedly 'cleared' over $173 billion in trading volume. The NFL itself accounts for a significant portion of this activity, with over half of the $3.3 billion traded on opening Sunday of the 2026 season occurring on prediction markets related to the league.
Prediction markets, which operate similarly to sportsbooks by offering fluctuating contract prices, allow users to bet on binary outcomes for a wide range of events, including sports. The NFL's brief also highlighted concerns that these markets permit individuals under 21 to wager, an age limit typically enforced by states for sports gambling. The league has urged the CFTC to adopt a similar age restriction, but the commission has not, leading to a situation where 18-year-olds can bet on games through prediction markets but not through licensed state sportsbooks.
While the NFL remains a holdout, other major sports leagues, including the NBA, NHL, MLB, MLS, and UFC, have partnered with prediction market platforms. Fans at Yankee Stadium, for instance, can see Polymarket branding, and the company has offered exclusive fan experiences through its partnership with the team.