As the 2026 NFL season passes its first quarter mark, several analysts are acknowledging significant misjudgments in their preseason predictions, with unexpected team performances and player trajectories dominating discussions.
Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert, once considered a strong contender for MVP and a sleeper Super Bowl candidate, has seen his team start the season with a 0-4 record. Ralph Vacchiano, who had been a long-time proponent of Herbert's talent, expressed his surprise at the team's struggles, noting a lack of cohesion on offense and what he described as a "disjointed" offensive unit. The Chargers' offensive line has been hampered by injuries, contributing to their status as one of the league's lowest-scoring offenses. Analyst Eric D. Williams echoed these sentiments, highlighting the ineffective pairing of veteran coach Jim Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel, and suggesting that Herbert may be the most overrated quarterback of this generation if his potential remains unfulfilled.
The Houston Texans, another team predicted by some to be Super Bowl contenders, have also stumbled to an 0-4 start. Analyst Ben Arthur admitted his preseason pick for the Texans to reach the Super Bowl was misguided. While he expected their strong defense to carry the team, Arthur noted a significant regression in defensive performance, particularly against the pass. Despite quarterback C.J. Stroud showing signs of growth, the team's defensive struggles have created a deep hole, making a playoff run appear unlikely.
In contrast to the underperforming favorites, several teams have exceeded expectations. The New York Giants, Las Vegas Raiders, and Cleveland Browns are all off to promising 3-1 starts. Greg Auman pointed to Klint Kubiak's immediate impact on the Raiders, highlighting his ability to build a winning culture. He also noted the Giants' strong start, potentially positioning them for a division title, and Cleveland's surprising success, even with quarterback Deshaun Watson. Auman attributed some of the Browns' early wins to playmakers like rookie receivers Denzel Boston and KC Concepcion, and the strong performance of second-year defensive tackle Mason Graham before his injury.
Conversely, the Dallas Cowboys' defense is facing scrutiny. Steven Ruiz, who had predicted an average defense and picked Dallas to win the NFC East, is reconsidering his stance. He cited coverage busts, missed tackles, and blown assignments as evidence that the defense is not playing like a well-coached unit. The Cowboys' struggles against the run, including a career-high performance by Buccaneers running back Bucky Irving, have further fueled concerns. While Ruiz believes some issues can be resolved, he questions the overall talent level, particularly at safety, and notes that the defense, as currently constructed, does not appear to be playoff-caliber.
On a more positive note, the Kansas City Chiefs, whom Henry McKenna had predicted to miss the playoffs, are proving him wrong. McKenna admitted he underestimated Patrick Mahomes's ability to return to elite form quickly and the impact of Kenneth Walker III on the offense. The Chiefs now have a high probability of making the playoffs and are contenders for the No. 1 seed in the AFC, with Mahomes playing at a level not seen in years and Walker providing a new dynamic to the offense. Analysts credit the success to the effective integration of new talent and strategic decisions made by the coaching staff.