Newspoll Indicates Labor Heading for Landslide Defeat in Victoria Election

Victoria's Labor government faces a potential landslide defeat in the upcoming state election, according to a new Newspoll. The survey, conducted between October 15 and October 22 with 1,017 voters, places the Coalition ahead of Labor by 55% to 45% on a two-party preferred basis. This represents a decline for Labor since July, when it trailed by 52% to 48%.

Labor's primary vote has fallen to 24%, a four-point decrease from July and a 13-point drop from the 37% it achieved in the 2022 state election. In contrast, the Coalition's primary vote has risen to 33%, a two-point increase from July. Minor parties are also seeing gains, with One Nation surging to 20% and the Greens lifting to 14%.

If these trends were to be replicated across Victoria, the Coalition could secure a majority government and potentially gain over 20 seats from Labor. The poll results are expected to heighten concerns within Labor, even after the recent installation of Ben Carroll as Premier in an attempt to improve the government's standing following Jacinta Allan's departure.

Despite the change in leadership, Labor's electoral position appears to have weakened. Carroll debuted with a negative net approval rating of minus 28, with 30% of voters viewing him favorably and 58% unfavorably. This rating, however, is an improvement on Allan's net approval rating of minus 46 in July, which was reportedly the worst result recorded for an Australian leader in Newspoll and contributed to her resignation.

Opposition Leader Jess Wilson's standing among voters has continued to strengthen. Her favorable rating increased to 49%, with her unfavorable rating remaining at 39%. Wilson also holds a significant lead as the preferred premier, with 48% of voters backing her compared to 34% for Carroll. This follows her lead over Allan as preferred premier by 51% to 32% in July.

The poll presents a substantial setback for Labor's election campaign. The party has attempted to link the Coalition with One Nation, stating in a recent advertisement that "Polls show the Liberals and One Nation cannot govern without each other." Labor is aiming to position Ben Carroll as a fresh start, launching their campaign with the slogan 'New Premier, New Direction.'