New York Gov. Kathy Hochul's advantage over Republican candidate Bruce Blakeman has diminished in the state's gubernatorial race, according to a recent Siena University poll. The survey, released Wednesday, shows Hochul leading Blakeman 49-39% among likely voters, a decrease from a 52-32% lead among registered voters in June.
With less than three months remaining until Election Day, the shift in voter preference comes as likely New York voters assigned a negative 30-47% favorability rating to the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA). Hochul, a Democrat, is facing off against Blakeman, the current Nassau County executive.
Pollster Steven Greenberg of Siena noted that four years prior, in August 2022, Hochul held a 14-point lead, 53-39%, over her opponent Lee Zeldin, ultimately winning the election by six points. Blakeman's campaign stated that recent polls have shown the race to be nearly tied, with Blakeman asserting that "this poll is always off and continues to be off." He further claimed that "Hochul is desperate for people to believe that she is way ahead when she knows that her high taxes, soaring electric bills, and increased crime have made her the worst governor in America."
The Siena University poll was conducted from August 3-6, surveying 811 likely New York voters, and has an overall margin of error of +/- 4.6 percentage points. Hochul's campaign has not yet provided comment on the poll findings.
When it comes to economic issues, likely voters believe Hochul would perform better than Blakeman in making prices more affordable (48-41%) and increasing the supply of affordable housing (51-35%). On public safety, the candidates are closely matched, with Hochul leading 47-44%. The issue of addressing undocumented immigrants in the state also shows a narrow margin, with Hochul ahead 45-44%.
The poll revealed that both candidates are retaining their party bases, with Hochul leading 80-8% among Democrats and Blakeman leading 84-9% among Republicans. Independent voters show a slight preference for Blakeman, favoring him 45-40%. Geographically, Hochul holds a significant lead in New York City (64-19%), while Blakeman leads in the downstate suburbs by eight points (49-41%). The race is nearly even upstate, as well as among men and white voters. Hochul maintains larger leads among women, Black voters, and Latino voters.
This Siena Research Institute poll also questioned voters about the DSA for the first time. The progressive political group has been increasing its influence in elections nationwide. The poll found that while Democrats view the DSA favorably (50-21%), a significant majority of Republicans (82%) and independents (57%) hold an unfavorable view of the organization.