A former chief foreign adviser to Downing Street has warned that the United Kingdom's incoming Prime Minister could face significant provocation from Russia within weeks of taking power. John Bew, who advised consecutive prime ministers including Boris Johnson, Liz Truss, Rishi Sunak, and Keir Starmer, stated that the new leader will need to be prepared for international affairs, even if domestic issues are a preferred focus.
Bew indicated a 'high likelihood' of Vladimir Putin making an aggressive move, potentially as Russia's campaign in Ukraine wanes. This could manifest as a hybrid attack against a NATO country or a Baltic state, involving both physical and cyber warfare. This assessment aligns with recent warnings from Washington suggesting the Kremlin is planning an armed incursion onto Polish land to test NATO's response.
Such a provocation could involve Russian troops crossing into Poland, with vital infrastructure potentially targeted by missiles and drones. Polish security experts have also warned that Russia and Belarus might send a small number of troops across the NATO border. The aim of such a crisis, analysts believe, would be to deter Western nations from continuing their support for Ukraine.
Beyond potential Russian aggression, the new Prime Minister might also have to navigate escalating tensions between the United States and Iran, and a possible resurgence of conflict in the Middle East. Bew emphasized that a Prime Minister cannot afford to ignore looming international incidents, stressing the integral link between foreign policy, national security, and the creation of national prosperity.
Bew's concerns echo a government strategy he helped author a year prior, which warned of the need for better preparation for a 'direct attack' on the UK. He suggested that insufficient weight has been placed on this analysis, noting significant gaps in homeland defense, particularly concerning missile defense.
Regarding the relationship with the United States, the incoming leader has indicated that the "Special Relationship" will remain critical. This comes amidst past statements where he expressed reservations about meeting Donald Trump. He has also endorsed the current defense investment plan, a £15 billion increase over four years, while emphasizing the need to use such investments to support British workers and businesses and foster economic growth.