Voters who backed Democratic former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024 are considerably more enthusiastic about casting ballots in the upcoming November midterm elections than those who supported President Donald Trump, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll. The findings serve as a potential warning sign for Republicans as they head into the elections where control of both chambers of Congress is at stake.
The poll, which concluded Monday, also revealed that men expressed greater enthusiasm for voting and were more certain to cast ballots than women. Additionally, male voters appear to be shifting toward the Democratic party, a development that could indicate an erosion of Republican support among a demographic that was crucial to Trump's 2024 victory.
According to the survey, 48% of individuals who voted for Harris in 2024 stated they were "very enthusiastic" about voting in the November elections. In contrast, only 30% of Trump voters reported the same level of enthusiasm.
These results contribute to a growing body of evidence pointing to an enthusiasm gap that favors Democrats. They also suggest possible fissures within the coalition that supported Trump in 2024. That coalition was bolstered by strong backing from men and gains among Hispanic voters and other demographic groups that leaned Republican in the 2024 election.
The poll also aligns with a series of encouraging indicators for Democrats, who are widely expected to win control of the House of Representatives and remain competitive in the race for the Senate. This outlook comes as Trump's approval ratings have declined amidst voter concerns over the cost of living and the ongoing conflict with Iran.
Republican strategist Charlie Gerow acknowledged that the poll's findings heighten the importance of his party's turnout efforts. However, he anticipates that the enthusiasm gap will narrow as concerns about the potential for far-left Democrats to gain power motivate Republican voters. "The enthusiasm has to be ginned up among Republicans because turnout is what’s going to determine the outcome of these midterm elections," Gerow said.
While Trump voters overwhelmingly plan to vote Republican, and Harris voters are similarly inclined to vote Democratic, Trump's 2024 supporters are less decided. Thirteen percent of Trump voters indicated they were unsure about who to vote for in congressional races, compared to 7% of Harris supporters who expressed the same uncertainty.
Broad Decline in Support
The nationwide poll, which surveyed 4,506 adults online, indicated that only 32% of Americans approved of Trump’s presidency. This figure matches the record low first observed in a September Reuters/Ipsos survey. The survey carries a 2 percentage point margin of error.
Since taking office in January 2025, support for Trump has decreased across all major demographic groups. This includes double-digit drops among Hispanic voters, men, rural and suburban populations, individuals without college degrees, and evangelical Christians.
A particularly notable shift has occurred among men, a group that Trump won in all three of his presidential campaigns, including by a 12-point margin in 2024, according to a Pew Research analysis.
In the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll, when asked how they would vote in a congressional race if the elections were held today, men favored Democrats over Republicans by 43% to 39%. This four-point Democratic advantage represents the widest margin seen in Trump's second term. While men consistently favored Republicans in 2025, they have largely favored Democrats since August.
The warning signs for Republicans reflect increasing voter anxiety about the high cost of living, exacerbated by a surge in gasoline and diesel prices following the war with Iran. Trump initiated the Iran attacks in February, despite campaign promises to avoid initiating new conflicts and to lower consumer costs.
The Reuters/Ipsos poll identified the cost of living as the primary issue influencing voters' decisions for the upcoming elections. Democratic values were cited as the second most significant issue, followed by immigration.
Republicans continue to maintain an advantage among older voters, a critical demographic in midterm elections where seniors historically constitute a disproportionately large share of the electorate. Voters aged 50 and older still favor the Republican Party over the Democratic Party by 2 percentage points, 44% to 42%. This is a decrease from an 8-point Republican advantage recorded in December.
Despite these demographic trends, the enthusiasm gap remains a significant concern for Republicans.
Among all voters polled who identified as enthusiastic, 62% stated they were motivated by opposition to Trump, while 36% expressed eagerness to support the president.
Linda Rivera, a 46-year-old Trump voter from Pennsylvania, expressed frustration with both parties. While she indicated she would likely vote Republican if she casts a ballot, she described herself as neither enthusiastic nor unenthusiastic about the upcoming election. Rivera, a respondent in the poll, cited concerns about widespread voting fraud—claims repeatedly amplified by Trump and his Republican allies without evidence—as a factor contributing to her uncertainty about voting. "I have lost faith in the voting process," she told Reuters. "I have lost faith in both parties. Not just one."