New Poll Shows Republican Blakeman Closing Gap with Hochul in New York Governor's Race
Blakeman trails incumbent by nine points, a closer margin than a Republican candidate had at this stage in 2022.
Republican Bruce Blakeman has narrowed the gap with Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul, trailing by nine points in the New York gubernatorial race with six weeks remaining until Election Day, according to a new Siena University poll.
Hochul leads Blakeman 50% to 41%, the poll of likely voters found. This represents a closer contest than that of GOP challenger Lee Zeldin against Hochul at a similar point in the 2022 election cycle.
"At this time four years ago, Hochul led Lee Zeldin by 17 points, 54%-37%, before going on to win by six points," said Siena pollster Steven Greenberg. "This year, Hochul leads Blakeman by nine points— 50% to 41%."
Blakeman's standing has improved slightly since last month, when Hochul held a 10-point lead, 49% to 39%. Despite the narrowing margin, Blakeman still faces a significant challenge in a state where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than a two-to-one ratio.
Hochul's favorability rating stands at 48% favorable and 48% unfavorable, with her job approval rating at 48% approve and 47% disapprove. Meanwhile, 35% of respondents view Blakeman favorably and 34% unfavorably, with 35% having no opinion or not knowing him.
Only 38% of voters believe New York State is heading in the right direction, while 49% feel it is going in the wrong direction. Nationally, 28% of voters believe the U.S. is on the right track, compared to 66% who believe it is heading in the wrong direction.
On key issues, voters give Hochul an edge. She is favored to do a better job making prices more affordable (49% to 40%), making New Yorkers safer (49% to 43%), and addressing undocumented immigration (47% to 43%).
The poll also highlighted the political impact of endorsements. Roughly half of likely voters believe former President Trump's endorsement of Blakeman is a negative for his campaign, including 24% of Republicans. Conversely, half of voters see the endorsement of Hochul by Democratic socialist New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani as a positive, including 22% of Republicans.
Hochul's campaign is reportedly spending millions on television advertisements linking Blakeman to Trump, while Blakeman and the Republican party are running ads suggesting Hochul is influenced by Mamdani.
Despite the close polling, two-thirds of likely voters anticipate Hochul will win re-election, including 37% of Republicans. Hochul holds a substantial lead in New York City, with 61% of voters supporting her compared to Blakeman's 27%. The candidates are nearly tied in the downstate suburbs, with Hochul leading 48% to 46%, while Blakeman has a slight advantage upstate, leading 47% to 44%.
The Siena University poll was conducted from September 11-17 among 1,144 likely voters. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.