New Poll Shows Ocasio-Cortez Leading Potential Democratic Presidential Primary Field in California

New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has emerged as the leading choice among California voters for the 2028 Democratic presidential primary, according to a new poll. The survey indicates that Gov. Gavin Newsom is in third place, and former Vice President Kamala Harris is in fifth.

Ocasio-Cortez garnered 18% of support in the poll, followed closely by former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg at 17%. Newsom secured 14% of the vote share, while Harris received 7%. Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly was favored by 10% of respondents.

The poll, conducted by McLaughlin & Associates from October 17-20, surveyed 800 California voters with a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points. Of those, 419 respondents weighed in on the hypothetical Democratic primary.

Pollster Terry McLaughlin noted that neither Newsom nor Harris appear to have secured the progressive or very liberal vote, facing strong competition from Ocasio-Cortez and Buttigieg. He also highlighted the importance of a demographic base, given that the majority of Democratic primary voters are minority voters.

Ocasio-Cortez showed particular strength among self-identified "liberal" (25%) and "very liberal" (41%) voters. Voters expressed lukewarm approval of Newsom's performance as governor, with 47% approving and 50% disapproving, including a significant 41% who strongly disapproved. Independent voters showed a higher disapproval rate of Newsom at 62%.

The poll also revealed that 56% of California voters believe the state is on the wrong track, citing economic issues such as the cost of living, budget and taxes, housing costs, and healthcare costs as primary concerns.

Other potential candidates on the list included Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, both at 3%; New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker at 2%; and former Ambassador Rahm Emanuel and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, each at 1%. Maryland Gov. Wes Moore, Colorado Gov. Jared Polis, and commentator Stephen A. Smith received no support in the poll. Twenty-three percent of respondents remained undecided.

While acknowledging the early stage of polling for the 2028 election, experts suggest the results offer some insights. Jeff Jenkins, a professor at the University of Southern California, commented that Newsom's performance is particularly noteworthy given name recognition typically plays a significant role in early polling. He suggested Harris is not viewed as a serious candidate by many, which could explain her tally.

Recent polling trends in California suggest a decline in enthusiasm for potential presidential runs by Newsom and Harris. A September poll from UC Berkeley Citrin Center and POLITICO showed a drop in excitement for both, compared to earlier in the year. National polls, however, present a different scenario, with several October surveys indicating Harris leading the pack nationally with 20% to 30% of the vote share, and Newsom placing second around 15%.

Both Newsom and Harris have publicly acknowledged considering White House runs and have been actively campaigning in early primary states. Newsom recently visited New Hampshire, while Harris is scheduled to visit Wisconsin and Georgia. The New York Post reached out to the offices of Newsom and Harris for comment.