New York Governor Kathy Hochul is facing a closer-than-expected contest in her bid for a second term, as a new poll shows her Republican challenger, Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, within striking distance. The survey, conducted by Red Oak Strategic on behalf of a pro-Blakeman super PAC, found Hochul leading Blakeman 47% to 43%, with 10% of registered voters remaining undecided.
The poll also revealed that only 38% of respondents view Hochul favorably, while 58% view her unfavorably. Just 33% of those surveyed believe the governor deserves a second full term. Blakeman, meanwhile, has a 30% favorable rating compared to 23% unfavorable. Hochul, who took office in 2021 following Andrew Cuomo's resignation, trails Blakeman by 21 points among independent voters.
Despite the challenging poll numbers, Hochul maintains a significant fundraising advantage, with $43 million available for her campaign and the state Democratic Party. In 2022, Hochul narrowly defeated Republican Lee Zeldin by six points in a midterm election that saw traditionally liberal areas underperform.
Blakeman has positioned himself as a contrast to what he calls the liberal policies of urban Democrats. In December, when launching his campaign, he criticized Hochul as a "failure" and stated his intention "to make people more prosperous, to make them safer and to make New Yorkers happy again." Blakeman, who has secured former President Donald Trump's endorsement, previously attended Game 3 of the NBA Finals with Trump.
As Nassau County Executive, Blakeman has enacted policies such as a ban on transgender athletes in county sports facilities and directed county detectives to cooperate with federal authorities on immigration enforcement. He also signed a local ordinance restricting the wearing of face masks in public, which critics argue is intended to suppress pro-Palestine demonstrations. Blakeman won a landslide victory in his re-election bid for a second term as county executive.
New York has not had a Republican governor in approximately two decades, with former Governor George Pataki being the last to hold the office. Blakeman has expressed confidence in his ability to appeal to a broad range of voters, citing his landslide victory in Nassau County, which has more registered Democrats than Republicans.
Governor Hochul has garnered support from some unexpected corners, including an endorsement from New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani. Despite political differences, Mamdani wrote in an op-ed that he has come to "trust Governor Hochul as someone willing to engage in an honest dialogue that leads to results." The alliance between the progressive mayor and the centrist governor has focused on shared priorities like affordability and childcare, though Hochul has also diverged from Mamdani's agenda on issues such as tax increases on the wealthy.
Hochul stated that she knows Mamdani "will stand strong alongside me as we fight against Donald Trump's attacks on this state."