Democratic Texas Senate candidate James Talarico has taken a 3-point lead over Republican opponent Ken Paxton, according to a new Fox News poll, amidst growing concerns within the GOP about the race. The poll showed Talarico with 51% support compared to Paxton's 48% among registered voters.
This development comes as Democrats aim to flip a Texas Senate seat, a feat not accomplished in approximately three decades. The party came close in 2018 when Senator Ted Cruz narrowly defeated Beto O'Rourke by about 2.5 percentage points. Democrats are now hoping that a potential blue wave in the 2026 midterm elections, combined with lingering controversies surrounding Paxton, could help them secure a victory.
Paxton, the current Texas Attorney General, has faced numerous challenges. He was indicted on securities fraud charges in 2015, later reaching a pretrial diversion agreement to dismiss them. In 2023, he was impeached by the Texas House of Representatives over allegations including obstruction of justice, making false statements against whistleblowers, and misappropriating public resources. He survived the subsequent impeachment trial in the state Senate by a narrow 16-14 vote.
Further complicating Paxton's standing, he was accused of using his office to benefit a campaign donor and allegedly pushed for a former employee to hire his mistress. His divorce proceedings also brought to light accusations of infidelity.
Republicans have sought to counter Talarico by portraying him as a progressive candidate, pointing to past statements where he suggested that God is nonbinary and that there are six sexes. However, the Fox News poll indicated that 59% of Texas voters have significant concerns about Paxton's character, while 47% expressed reservations about Talarico being too extreme.
The Fox News poll was conducted between July 23 and July 27, surveying 1,006 registered voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. The RealClearPolitics polling aggregate shows Talarico with a 0.9 percentage point lead over Paxton.