Republicans are pinning significant hopes on New Hampshire to secure a Senate seat, a strategy emerging amidst broader concerns about their national electoral map. The party, which had anticipated a stronger performance this cycle, now sees the Granite State as a potentially crucial battleground against Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas.
At the heart of the GOP's optimism is John E. Sununu, a former U.S. Senator and scion of a prominent New Hampshire political family. His father, John H. Sununu, and brother, Chris Sununu, both served as governors. The Sununu name carries considerable weight in the state, and John E. Sununu's previous Senate term was noted for his bipartisan approach, including his opposition to certain provisions of the PATRIOT Act, appealing to the state's independent-minded voters.
In contrast to Republican candidates in other targeted states like Michigan and Georgia, who face scrutiny over their alignment with former President Donald Trump, the Sununu family has historically been associated with the more moderate wing of the Republican party. John E. Sununu’s father served as chief of staff in George H.W. Bush’s White House, and his brother was a notable critic of Trump.
Democrats quickly rallied behind Pappas, a former state legislator and small-business owner, to succeed retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen. Pappas's background is seen as resonating with the state's voters.
While recent polling suggests Pappas holds an advantage, a New York Times poll indicated Sununu trailing by five points but leading Pappas by ten points among independent voters on character. This dynamic highlights the race's competitiveness.
However, Trump's standing in New Hampshire, with 60% disapproval among all voters and 65% among independents, poses a significant challenge. Should the election become nationalized, this disapproval could impact Sununu's prospects.
Substantial outside spending has flooded the race. The Senate Leadership Fund has committed $17 million to support Sununu, the No Going Back PAC has allocated $10 million for advertisements, and Americans for Prosperity Action has contributed over $2 million. Cumulatively, outside spending has already surpassed $50 million in a state with fewer than one million registered voters.
The intense spending has created a challenging environment for both campaigns. Sununu has acknowledged the difficulty in cutting through the noise to ensure his message is heard, while Pappas has criticized the influence of big money in politics, noting his campaign is being outspent.
The Senate Majority PAC, aligned with Senate Democrats, has pledged $10 million to aid Pappas, who could become the first openly gay man elected to the Senate. Despite this significant investment, Republican-backed spending remains higher.
Democrats view holding the New Hampshire seat as vital for their path to a Senate majority. However, Pappas may face an enthusiasm gap, with a lower percentage of Democrats expressing satisfaction with their nominee compared to Republicans' satisfaction with Sununu.
Further complicating the picture, a portion of voters who prefer a Democratic Senate have indicated they plan to vote for Sununu. This suggests the race remains undecided and could potentially buck national trends, a characteristic often associated with New Hampshire politics.