The Democratic National Committee's recently revised 2028 presidential primary calendar presents a potential obstacle course for California Governor Gavin Newsom, placing him in a series of states where his policy record could face scrutiny from Democratic voters.
The new schedule will send candidates through South Carolina, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Michigan, and Virginia before the broader Super Tuesday contests in early March 2028.
Early State Challenges
In South Carolina, a state where a majority of Democratic voters favor restricting transgender athletes from competing according to their sex at birth, Newsom's California policy allowing biological males identifying as female to compete in girls' sports, with accommodations for displaced female athletes, may face opposition. California also protects access to sex-change procedures for minors, with taxpayer-funded Medi-Cal covering related treatments, policies that could prove unpopular in the state.
Nevada's proximity to California means its residents are sensitive to the Golden State's energy policies. In February 2024, Nevada Governor Joe Lombardo and Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs warned Newsom that California's refinery regulations could reduce fuel supplies and increase gasoline prices in their states.
New Hampshire, with its "Live Free or Die" ethos, also presents energy policy challenges. Polling indicates a majority of New Hampshire Democrats support an energy strategy combining renewables with natural gas, contrasting with California's push towards electrifying buildings and phasing out natural gas, including stricter emission standards for new furnaces and water heaters.
New Mexico, the nation's second-largest oil-producing state, relies on the oil and gas industry to fund its education, healthcare, and infrastructure initiatives. Newsom's stated goal of phasing out oil extraction in California by 2045 could be a difficult message to deliver to New Mexico Democrats.
In Michigan, the auto industry's stronghold, Newsom's initiative to mandate that all new passenger vehicles sold in California be zero-emission by 2035 has drawn criticism. Michigan Democratic Senator Elissa Slotkin was the sole Democratic senator to vote against overturning the mandate, citing the livelihoods of over a million Michiganders dependent on the auto sector.
Virginia presents concerns over data centers, which are crucial for the AI boom. A 2026 VCU poll indicated that a significant majority of Virginia Democrats opposed maintaining the state's sales-tax exemption for data centers. Newsom, who has positioned California as a hub for AI innovation and vetoed a bill imposing new water-reporting requirements on data centers, may find this stance at odds with Virginia's Democratic electorate.
Shifting Political Landscape
Beyond the calendar, the political landscape has also shifted. Newsom, who gained national prominence by directly challenging former President Donald Trump, may find that tactic less effective as Trump's approval ratings have declined. A July Emerson poll showed Pete Buttigieg leading potential Democratic contenders with 19%, followed by Newsom at 17%, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Jon Ossoff at 13%. In New Hampshire, Ocasio-Cortez led that poll.
Newsom is also set to leave the California governorship in January 2027, losing the significant platform that comes with the office. Meanwhile, Vice President Kamala Harris has indicated she is considering a White House bid and is actively building her national political presence.
With a crowded field of potential candidates and a challenging early state schedule, Newsom's home-state record, once a point of pride, could become a liability in his presidential aspirations.