New California Governor Poll Shows Becerra Widening Lead Over Hilton

Democrat Xavier Becerra has extended his lead over Republican Steve Hilton to 22 percentage points in the California gubernatorial race, according to a new Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) poll. The survey, conducted September 4-10 among likely voters, shows Becerra leading 60% to 38% ahead of the November 3 election.

This latest polling marks a significant shift from the summer campaign. A previous poll by UC Berkeley found Becerra ahead by 18 points. Republican candidate Steve Hilton criticized the PPIC poll, calling it "misleading" and asserting that "the GOP turnout is way off." He added that Californians "are desperate for change" and that Becerra represents "four more years of the one-party rule of the last 16."

Strategies and Voter Priorities

A Republican strategist, Matt Klink, commented that Hilton "needed all the pieces to fall into place and for Xavier Becerra to make a major mistake to have a chance at victory this November." Klink suggested that "neither has happened" and that "unless something radically changes, we’re looking at a blowout by Secretary Becerra, who is largely hiding from the California voters."

The PPIC survey indicates that both candidates' bases remain strongly committed, with 93% of Democrats supporting Becerra and 92% of Republicans backing Hilton. Independent voters favor Becerra by a 19-point margin (57% to 38%). Becerra also holds majority support across most demographic groups, with the exception of the Central Valley, where Hilton leads 52% to 46%.

Affordability emerged as a critical issue for voters, with 65% stating that the candidates' positions on the cost of living would be very important in their decision. This concern comes amidst widespread economic pessimism in the state; 71% of California adults anticipate difficult financial times ahead, and 54% believe the state is heading in the wrong direction.

Hilton has centered his campaign on California's cost of living and business climate, while Becerra, the former California attorney general and U.S. Health and Human Services secretary, is the Democratic nominee. Becerra gained prominence in the primaries after the withdrawal of another Democratic front-runner.

In broader electoral trends, the PPIC poll also found that 62% of likely voters would support the Democratic candidate in California's House races, compared to 36% for the Republican candidate.

The PPIC survey polled 1,745 California adults, including 1,103 likely voters, utilizing an online methodology conducted by Ipsos in English and Spanish. The general election is scheduled for November 3, 2026.