New Book Questions Longevity Data, Citing Discrepancies in Centenarian Counts

In 2010, Japanese welfare officials attempting to visit Sogen Kato, who was believed to be Tokyo's oldest man at 111, discovered his mummified remains in his home. He had been dead for at least 30 years, yet his pension continued to be paid, and funds were withdrawn from his account.

This incident prompted a nationwide audit in Japan that identified over 234,000 individuals on family registers who were at least 100 years old but whose whereabouts could not be confirmed. Scientist Saul Justin Newman, author of the new book "Morbid: Debunking Modern Longevity Science," suggests that a significant portion, possibly over 82%, of these recorded centenarians are likely deceased or missing.

Newman argues in his book that such data discrepancies can distort the understanding of aging and longevity. He extends his critique to popular longevity research, including the well-known "Blue Zones" guides, which promote lifestyle factors from communities with high reported numbers of centenarians. He also examines anti-aging treatments brought to market before their efficacy in humans has been conclusively proven.

Similar issues with centenarian counts have been noted elsewhere. Newman reports that in Greece, investigations into pension fraud following the 2011 census led to the disappearance of at least 72% of the reported centenarian population from the records. He posits that, like Sogen Kato, many of these individuals were only accounted for on pension payment days.

Newman also questions the advice derived from these longevity studies. For instance, he points to data suggesting that residents of Okinawa, a Japanese island often cited as a Blue Zone, have the highest consumption of KFC in Japan and the worst Body Mass Index (BMI) in the country. Furthermore, Okinawans are predominantly atheist and consume fewer vegetables than recommended by Blue Zones guidelines, challenging the universality of the promoted lifestyle factors.

The book also touches upon the financial aspects of longevity research and treatments. It notes the acquisition of Sirtris, a company founded by Harvard researcher David Sinclair focusing on resveratrol (found in red wine), by GlaxoSmithKline for approximately $720 million in 2008. However, the promise of turning resveratrol into a widely applicable medicine for patients had outpaced the evidence, leading GSK to close its Cambridge operation related to the research in 2013.

Newman recounts facing resistance from colleagues at Oxford when he attempted to critique the age records used in longevity research, eventually leading him to a medical research position at University College London. He also highlights experiments, such as one involving kokanee salmon in 1961 where removing gonads extended their lifespan, as examples of interventions that demonstrably alter lifespan, though direct human applications remain elusive.