Netanyahu's Bloc Falls Short of Majority in Israeli Election

Israel's final election count has confirmed that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc has lost its parliamentary majority, ushering in a period of complex coalition negotiations. The completed count, published early Friday by Israel's Central Elections Committee, awarded Netanyahu's bloc 53 seats in the 120-member Knesset, while the opposition alliance led by Gadi Eisenkot secured 48 seats. The two predominantly Arab parties garnered a historic 19 seats, positioning them as potential kingmakers.

Netanyahu's Likud party emerged as the largest single party with 27 seats, followed by Eisenkot's Yashar with 21 and former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett's Beyachad with 12. Voter turnout reached 77.9%, according to the Central Elections Committee.

The inconclusive results leave neither major bloc with the 61 seats required for a majority, initiating a potentially lengthy political struggle involving alliances with Arab parties, ultra-Orthodox lawmakers, or a unity government.

Ultra-Orthodox allies explore a break with Netanyahu In a potentially significant development, Israeli journalist Yishai Cohen of Kikar HaShabbat reported that Rabbi Dov Lando, a leading ultra-Orthodox religious authority, had instructed lawmakers from Degel HaTorah, part of United Torah Judaism, to open discussions with the opposition. The reported aim of these discussions is to secure an arrangement protecting the status of yeshiva students amid the ongoing dispute over mandatory military service.

Channel 12 also reported that figures within the ultra-Orthodox party were considering backing an Eisenkot-led minority government through outside parliamentary support, which could signal a departure from their long-standing alliance with Netanyahu. Some party figures were quoted as saying their votes were not guaranteed to Netanyahu.

However, the office of United Torah Judaism Chairman Yaakov Asher denied that any instruction to begin negotiations had been issued. If an arrangement were to materialize, it would represent a notable shift from the party's traditional alignment. A key point of contention remains Eisenkot's pledge to expand military conscription among ultra-Orthodox men, though reports suggest a compromise might be considered.

Sources familiar with opposition discussions indicated that Eisenkot's camp had been preparing for potential cooperation with ultra-Orthodox parties prior to the election, suggesting that some of the current options were already under consideration. Such an arrangement could involve compromises on military service and potentially rely on parliamentary support from Arab lawmakers, bridging previously disparate political factions.

Arab parties signal flexibility, but obstacles remain The Arab parties, which nearly doubled their representation to 19 seats, also present a potential avenue for coalition building. However, assessments of an Arab-backed government's feasibility remain divided.

Channel 12 reported that Ra'am leader Mansour Abbas expressed skepticism about the viability of an Eisenkot-led minority government with support from Arab lawmakers. Political commentator Amit Segal suggested that the primary remaining options were a Netanyahu-Eisenkot unity government or another election.

Conversely, Mohammed Majadla, head of the news division at Radio Nas and a political commentator for Channel 12, argued that both Ra'am and the Joint List were prepared to leverage their parliamentary influence to prevent Netanyahu's return to power. Majadla stated that the Arab parties' priorities include preventing Netanyahu from returning to office and avoiding a new election that could jeopardize their recent gains. He emphasized that the initiative now rests with Eisenkot.

Despite potential flexibility from Arab parties, significant challenges persist. Eisenkot's potential partners include politicians who oppose cooperation with ultra-Orthodox factions, and several opposition leaders had campaigned against relying on Arab lawmakers for governance.

Unity government or another election? A national unity government comprising Likud and Yashar could offer a more direct path to a majority, but would require Eisenkot to abandon his stance against joining a Netanyahu-led government. The process of coalition formation could also provide Netanyahu with further opportunities. If Eisenkot, who is expected to receive the mandate to form a government, fails, the task could be assigned to another candidate, potentially offering Netanyahu another chance. Failure by successive candidates could lead to another election.

Opposition figures like former Prime Minister Yair Lapid acknowledged the difficulty of forming a government, describing the process as taking place slowly and away from public view. The negotiations are also occurring within the context of the broader Middle East agenda.

The election results are slated to be formally presented to President Isaac Herzog on November 4, with the new Knesset expected to be sworn in on November 10. For now, the election has determined the vote, but the composition of the next government remains uncertain.