Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his allies are on track to win the most seats in Israel's parliament following the latest election, but current projections indicate they will fall short of securing a majority, leaving the path to forming a government uncertain. Preliminary results suggest Netanyahu's Likud party and its allies will secure 54 seats in the Knesset, a decrease from their current 60 seats. The opposition bloc, led by Gadi Eisenkot, is projected to win 48 seats. A significant factor in the election was a strong turnout from Arab parties, which are expected to gain around 19 seats, nearly doubling their previous representation.
As votes continue to be tallied, the definitive results are not expected until later in the week. The counting process, which involves manual verification of ballots, includes votes cast by Israeli soldiers and diplomats stationed abroad. The final vote tally is anticipated by October 30, with official results slated for publication on November 4.
During the interim period until a new government is formed, Netanyahu will continue to serve as prime minister, leading a caretaker administration. The process of forming a government in Israel, which relies on coalition building, can often extend for weeks or even months. The president of Israel, Isaac Herzog, will consult with party leaders to determine who has the best chance of assembling a majority coalition. Typically, no single party wins an outright majority, making coalition negotiations and the support of smaller parties crucial.
If President Herzog is unable to secure a majority for any candidate, he can task a second and then a third individual. Should all attempts fail after 42 days for each candidate, a new election would be called.
Several potential paths exist for government formation. Netanyahu's bloc could attempt to draw in opposition parties to form a unity government, though this is complicated by the opposition's stance against him. Alternatively, opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot might seek to form a minority government with the support of Arab parties. Such a coalition would rely on the Arab factions voting with the government on key issues, even without direct participation in the government itself. This scenario could potentially grant Eisenkot a working majority on legislative matters, though the demands of the Arab factions in return remain to be seen.
Netanyahu's party has questioned the validity of the Arab vote, referring to it as "fraudulent" without presenting evidence. The Arab political landscape includes the Joint List coalition, projected to win 12 seats, and the Ra’am party, expected to secure 7 seats. The formation of a government coalition requires a minimum of 61 seats in the 120-seat Knesset.