Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's governing coalition has fallen short of a parliamentary majority, with newly counted ballots indicating a significant surge in support for Arab parties. As of Thursday morning ET, with 93.8% of ballots tallied, Netanyahu's right-wing and religious bloc was projected to win 53 seats in the 120-member Knesset. In contrast, the opposition bloc, led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, was projected to secure 48 seats. Combined with the anticipated 19 seats from two predominantly Arab parties, the anti-Netanyahu bloc could potentially command 67 seats.
The updated figures show Netanyahu's Likud party as the largest single party with 26 seats, followed by Eisenkot's Yashar party with 21 and former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett's Beyachad party with 12. These figures remain preliminary.
The results leave both Netanyahu and Eisenkot short of the 61 seats required to form a government independently, raising the possibility of complex coalition negotiations or a new election. A key factor in the shifting landscape is the dramatic increase in turnout among Israeli Arab voters, which reached approximately 80%, a substantial rise from 53.2% in the 2022 election, according to the Israel Democracy Institute. The Joint List was projected to win 11 seats and Ra'am was projected to secure eight, nearly doubling the combined representation of Arab parties from the 10 seats they won in 2022.
Overall voter turnout reached 77.7% by the official closing time on election night, the highest level at that hour since 1999. The increased Arab participation could prove decisive, though several opposition leaders have previously ruled out including Arab parties in a governing coalition. Nevertheless, their parliamentary support could enable the opposition to replace Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana and gain greater control over the legislative agenda.
The political battle intensified following a Channel 12 report alleging that significant funds originating from Qatar may have been used to influence voter participation in Arab communities. The report suggested some funds passed through financial channels previously used to transfer money to terrorist organizations. These allegations are not yet independently substantiated, and investigators have not confirmed whether foreign financing occurred or if election crimes were committed. Shin Bet Director David Zini reportedly presented intelligence on suspected foreign interference to Central Elections Committee Chairman Justice Noam Sohlberg, who has ordered an investigation. Qatar has strongly denied the allegations, accusing Israeli politicians of attempting to involve the Gulf nation in Israel's domestic political disputes. The acting Central Elections Committee director general also stated that election integrity was safeguarded and there is no basis for allegations of systematic violations.
Despite these allegations, Likud argued that suspected foreign interference makes cooperation with Arab parties unacceptable. The party stated that "no Zionist party must cooperate with Ra'am and the Joint List, replace the Knesset speaker using votes bought with cash, or establish a government dangerous to Israel." Critics, however, suggest this statement aims to prevent the opposition from replacing the Knesset speaker, which could then prevent a vote on establishing a state commission of inquiry into the October 7 events.
Gadi Eisenkot responded to the allegations, calling foreign involvement "unacceptable and profoundly serious," particularly from a country that funds Hamas. He urged a thorough investigation and strong action against any compromise of election integrity. Eisenkot also accused Netanyahu and his allies of an "illegitimate influence operation" aimed at delaying results and undermining the new Knesset.
Political commentators suggest that the complete invalidation of the election results is unlikely. Instead, the developments may intensify discussions about forming a unity government or holding another election. Yair Golan, leader of the Democrats party, urged opposition leaders to swiftly form a new government, stating that "The people have spoken. Sixty-seven seats demanded change."
One potential path forward could be a national unity coalition between Netanyahu's Likud and Eisenkot's Yashar party. Sources close to former President Donald Trump reportedly prefer a stable coalition excluding far-right figures like National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir. However, such a unity government would face challenges, as Eisenkot has pledged not to join a Netanyahu-led government, and Netanyahu's far-right partners have warned against their exclusion.
Another mathematical possibility for a majority involves Netanyahu's coalition combined with ultra-Orthodox parties, but this scenario faces significant disagreements, particularly over military conscription for ultra-Orthodox men. As the investigations into foreign interference continue, Netanyahu remains caretaker prime minister until a new government is formed.