Israel's recent election saw Arab parties achieve unprecedented gains, projecting to win 19 Knesset seats, a result that positions them as potential kingmakers. However, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has alleged widespread fraud, accusing the Arab parties of "stealing" the election.
In a post on X, Netanyahu claimed that the Likud party was providing evidence of "election theft" in numerous Arab polling stations, citing allegations of bribery, threats, violence, forgery, and the improper use of voter mobilization software. He called for a thorough investigation by the police and Shin Bet and an immediate response from the Central Elections Committee.
Preliminary results indicate that neither Netanyahu's right-wing bloc nor the opposition, led by Gadi Eisenkot, has secured the 61 seats required for a parliamentary majority. This has amplified the significance of the Arab parties' performance.
The Joint List alliance, comprising the predominantly Arab-Jewish Hadash party and the Arab nationalist parties Ta’al and Balad, was projected to win 12 seats. The United Arab List (Ra’am), led by Mansour Abbas, was expected to secure seven seats. Arab citizens constitute approximately 21% of Israel's population, and turnout in this election was reported to be between 75% and 80%.
Analysts suggest that Netanyahu's campaign strategy heavily relied on portraying the opposition as willing to form a government dependent on Arab parties, which he argued could lead to the establishment of a Palestinian state and endanger Israel's security. This message has consistently been a core theme of his campaign.
Historically, Arab parties have largely operated in opposition, with occasional support from outside the coalition, as seen in the 1990s governments of Yitzhak Rabin and Shimon Peres. This pattern is attributed to various factors, including the political sensitivities surrounding their participation in governing coalitions and their past parliamentary strength. However, a recent shift in voting patterns, with an estimated 85-90% of Arab voters now supporting Arab parties, has increased their political influence.
Demands for political concessions from Arab parties supporting a coalition would likely include government action and development plans to combat crime and promote socioeconomic growth in Arab communities, involving significant budget allocations. These arrangements are viewed as exchanges of public goods and resources for political backing.
While the Joint List is not expected to join a governing coalition, Mansour Abbas's Ra'am party has adopted a more pragmatic approach, accepting Israel as a Jewish state and aiming to improve the lives of Arab citizens within that framework. This stance has previously led to Ra'am being invited into a coalition in 2021.
Earlier, the Central Elections Committee had voted to disqualify both the Joint List and Ra'am from the elections, citing provisions that bar candidates who deny Israel's existence as a Jewish and democratic state or support terrorism. However, these decisions were overturned by Israel's Supreme Court.
Some observers have pointed to the record gains by Arab parties as evidence against claims of Israel being an apartheid state, highlighting their participation in the democratic process. However, they also emphasize the responsibility of these parties to reject extremist positions and engage constructively with the Jewish majority.