In Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District, a region encompassing the increasingly Democratic-leaning Omaha metro area and its conservative suburbs, an open congressional seat pits Republican Omaha City Councilmember Brinker Harding against Democratic activist Denise Powell. This district is one of only eight nationwide that elected a Republican to the House of Representatives while simultaneously supporting Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris over Republican Donald Trump in the 2024 election.
The district's political identity is a subject of local and national interest, given that Nebraska as a state has consistently favored Republican presidential candidates, with its electoral votes not going to a Democrat since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964. However, Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District has shown a different tendency, having supported Democratic presidential candidates in three out of five elections since 2008, earning it the moniker "blue dot" within an otherwise Republican state. Despite this, a Democrat has only secured the House seat once since 1994.
Both Harding and Powell are engaging with voters at local events, including parades and festivals. Harding has emphasized his ties to the Republican establishment, highlighting endorsements from House Speaker Mike Johnson and Majority Leader Steve Scalise, and stating he has "the full confidence of, not only the White House, but leadership in the Congress." He has also aimed to appeal to swing voters, asserting his deeper knowledge of the district compared to Powell.
Powell, co-founder of Women Who Run Nebraska, has focused on issues such as Medicare cuts and affordability, and has drawn attention to the business dealings of Trump and his family, suggesting it contrasts with the struggles of everyday people. She believes this message resonates even with Republicans who may not be anti-Trump, as they understand the need for checks and balances.
Notable Democratic figures, including former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and ex-Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel, have campaigned with Powell. Supporters of Harding have countered with "Brinker Dot" signs, while a grassroots movement advocating for a "Blue Dot Wave" has emerged, with residents spray-painting blue dots on reused lawn signs to signify their support for Democratic candidates.
The influence of Donald Trump remains a significant factor. Harding has Trump's primary endorsement, and the Republican National Committee views Trump as a key asset for mobilizing voters in an off-year election. Several Republican congressional candidates have appeared at rallies with Trump, and his midterm convention in Dallas is intended to energize party faithful. Harding's campaign has indicated that while he appreciates Trump's endorsement, Nebraskans prefer to be engaged with "person-to-person" interactions rather than solely through national figures.
Retiring Rep. Don Bacon, who held the seat, sometimes diverged from the White House, criticizing defense policies and opposing tariffs. Mary Jane Truemper, chair of the Nebraska Republican Party, characterized Powell and the state's Democrats as having moved too far left, positioning Harding as a "steady force" who appeals to moderate Democrats and Republicans alike. Powell herself acknowledged Bacon's pragmatic style of leadership as beneficial to the district, but questioned if it would be sufficient in the current political climate, stating, "People are worse off than they were before."