Nearly Half of French Muslims Would Consider Leaving if Le Pen Wins Presidency, Survey Finds

Nearly half of Muslims living in France would consider leaving the country if Marine Le Pen wins the upcoming presidential election, according to a survey by Ifop. The poll found that 46 percent of Muslim respondents would contemplate emigration, with 20 percent stating they would 'certainly' leave.

Le Pen, leader of the hard-Right National Rally party, is currently the front-runner in polls for the 2027 presidency. The survey also revealed significant apprehension about the potential impact of her victory, with 81 percent of Muslim respondents believing it would lead to increased aggression and discrimination against them. Additionally, 27 percent said they would consider concealing their religious identity.

Le Pen has previously proposed measures to combat what she terms 'Islamist ideologies,' including making it a fineable offense to wear a hijab, or 'Islamist veil,' in public. She has advocated for a referendum on a bill with 'numerous powerful measures,' such as banning the headscarf in public places. This stance has been a consistent theme in her presidential campaigns since 2012, though she had softened this particular proposal in 2022.

France has a history of secularism-based restrictions on religious attire. In 2011, it became the first European country to ban full-face coverings in public, citing identification, security, and social interaction concerns. More recently, in 2023, girls were banned from wearing the abaya, a long dress worn by some Muslim women, in state secondary schools, a move supported by President Emmanuel Macron and seen by some as discriminatory against the Muslim minority, which constitutes about 10 percent of France's population.

The Ifop study, which surveyed 9,689 adults, indicated that a majority of French respondents favor restrictions on Islamic dress and other religious symbols in public. Some 53 percent opposed women wearing a hijab in the street, and 75 percent supported the ban on abayas in state schools. Furthermore, 72 percent of those surveyed backed a ban on conspicuous religious symbols at sporting events.

François Kraus, director of Ifop's Politics and Current Affairs unit, stated that a victory for Le Pen 'risks generating significant blockages and produces high levels of fear and a sense of insecurity.'

Le Pen has consistently led first-round voting intention surveys for the April 18, 2027 election, typically polling between 30 and 35 percent. She has also recently expressed skepticism about continued financial aid to Ukraine, suggesting she would stop funding Kyiv within six months of taking office, citing France's inability to afford it. Le Pen has been critical of EU sanctions against Russia and has previously described the EU's stance as an 'energy war.'