Nearly Half of French Muslims May Emigrate if Le Pen Wins Presidency, Survey Finds

Nearly half of Muslims in France would consider leaving the country if Marine Le Pen, leader of the hard-Right National Rally party, wins the upcoming presidential election, according to a survey conducted by Ifop. The poll found that 46 percent of Muslim respondents would contemplate emigration, with 20 percent stating they would 'certainly' leave.

Beyond emigration, 81 percent of Muslim respondents believe a victory for Le Pen would lead to increased aggression and discrimination against them. Furthermore, 27 percent indicated they would consider concealing their religious identity.

Le Pen has previously proposed measures to combat 'Islamist ideologies,' including a potential fine for wearing a hijab, which she refers to as the 'Islamist veil,' in public spaces. She wrote on X last month that she would submit a referendum to the French people containing "numerous powerful measures, including the banning of the Islamist headscarf in public places."

This stance on religious attire is not new for Le Pen, who has advocated for banning head coverings for Muslim women in public since 2012. However, she had previously softened this position in 2022 during her presidential campaign against Emmanuel Macron.

France has already implemented restrictions on religious symbols. In 2011, it became the first European country to ban full-face coverings in public, citing reasons of identification, security, and social interaction. Violations result in fines or mandatory civic education. More recently, in 2023, girls were banned from wearing the abaya, a long dress worn by some Muslim women, in state secondary schools. The government argued this measure upheld French secularism, though it sparked debate about potential discrimination against the Muslim minority, which constitutes approximately 10 percent of France's population.

The Ifop survey, which questioned 9,689 adults, suggests broad public support in France for restrictions on Islamic dress and other religious symbols in public. Fifty-three percent of respondents favored restrictions on women wearing hijabs in the street, and 75 percent supported the ban on abayas in state secondary schools. Additionally, 72 percent of those surveyed backed a ban on conspicuous religious symbols at sporting events.

François Kraus, director of Ifop's Politics and Current Affairs unit, stated that a victory for Le Pen "risks generating significant blockages and produces high levels of fear and a sense of insecurity."

Le Pen is currently the front-runner in polls for the 2027 presidential election, typically polling between 30 and 35 percent in first-round voting intention surveys. Other candidates like Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Édouard Philippe have been polling in second place.

In recent statements, Le Pen has also expressed skepticism towards continued financial aid for Ukraine, suggesting she would halt funding within six months of taking office, citing France's inability to afford it. She has been a long-time critic of the European Union's sanctions against Russia and has described the EU's stance as an "energy war."