Nearly 4,000 Migrants Await Channel Crossing in Northern France, Officials Warn

Border security officials have warned that nearly 4,000 migrants are currently camped in northern France, awaiting an opportunity to cross the English Channel to Britain, a figure described as double the normal number.

Duncan Capps, the Home Office's Border Security Commander, informed the Commons' home affairs select committee that French authorities estimate approximately 3,800 individuals are situated in camps between Calais and Dunkirk. Capps noted that this increased presence, while concerning, also reflects the difficulties migrants face in attempting to cross.

He explained that a significant part of the strategy involves making crossings economically unviable for trafficking gangs. "There is a moment with this from a criminal perspective where it stops being particularly viable," Capps stated, adding that the cost of boats, engines, and the risk of interdiction and jail time aim to deter criminal operations.

The majority of migrants waiting to cross are single men, with the most common nationalities being Eritrean, Sudanese, Somali, Ethiopian, and Afghan. Despite the large numbers in northern France, the number of successful small boat crossings to the UK so far this year is down 43 percent compared to the same period in the previous year, with just under 21,000 crossings recorded.

Rob Jones, Director General of Operations at the National Crime Agency, told the committee that the higher number of migrants in northern France indicates high intent but also shows they are struggling to make the crossing. He believes the decrease in successful crossings suggests the business model of trafficking gangs is beginning to falter. The NCA is actively monitoring and anticipating potential shifts in smugglers' tactics.

Capps also highlighted that migrants may attempt to cross the Channel multiple times, with individuals typically making seven or eight attempts before a successful crossing. This admission raises questions about the Home Office's claim of preventing over 50,000 attempts since the 2024 General Election, as the figure could include repeated attempts by the same individuals.

Migrants stopped by French patrols are not detained and are permitted to try again, meaning the 50,000 prevention figure might be inflated. Capps cited two instances last month where small boats reached UK shores without interception due to the busy Channel conditions and the boats being detected only when they were approximately 2.5 miles offshore, making immediate interception by Home Office vessels impossible.

The cost of an illegal crossing has reportedly decreased, with smuggling gangs now charging between 1,000 and 2,000 euros (£840 to £1,700) per person. The dinghies used by traffickers typically cost around £14,000 each, according to Jones.