NATO Must Prepare for Russian Hybrid Attacks, Warns Polish Foreign Minister

Poland's Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski has warned that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) must brace for potentially deadly Russian hybrid attacks. The caution comes amid rising concerns over the Kremlin's increasing sabotage and disruption operations targeting European societies.

Sikorski told the Financial Times that the likelihood of fatalities resulting from these actions is growing. He indicated that a critical threshold would be reached if people begin to die, necessitating a significant conversation within NATO about the response. "The question is what constitutes an attack, a cross-border attack, and as long as it’s property... it’s one thing, but if people start dying, then we’ll have to have another very serious conversation at NATO," he said.

He acknowledged that NATO would need to make a "judgment" on how to retaliate, as there is no pre-defined limit for such actions. "When will we make a judgment that the Russians have come too far? Because it is a judgment. You know, there is no agreed prior definition."

While Sikorski did not elaborate on specific retaliatory measures for a fatality, he noted that Poland and Estonia have previously invoked NATO's Article 4, which allows for consultations among allies, following airspace incursions by Russian drones and fighter jets. Article 5, the mutual defense clause, has been invoked only once, by the United States after the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks.

Poland and its neighboring countries have expressed growing concern over a series of cyberattacks, airspace violations, and sabotage attempts attributed to Russian President Vladimir Putin's campaign to erode support for Ukraine. In July, a Russian Kh-101 cruise missile crashed into a field in eastern Poland, creating a significant crater. Ukraine's foreign ministry stated at the time that the missile had "crossed into Poland" during an attack on Ukraine, thereby "violating NATO airspace."

Intelligence officials from five European agencies have indicated that senior executives at European defense companies are being targeted by Russian operatives. German intelligence services have warned that the Kremlin's "shadow war" may be entering a new, potentially lethal phase. Last month, Berlin stated that Moscow was behind a drone attack on Leipzig/Halle Airport in August, which targeted Ukrainian cargo planes. The explosive device on one drone reportedly failed to detonate due to a faulty detonator, and investigators suspect a second drone collided with a nearby cargo aircraft.

Sikorski urged European nations to respond to attacks attributed to Moscow by closing Russian consulates, restricting the travel of Kremlin diplomats, and reducing their numbers, mirroring actions taken by Poland. "I’ve run out of consulates, but others still have consulates," he remarked.

He also advocated for biometric passports for all Russians entering the EU to prevent operatives from using false identities and supported reducing the number of EU tourist visas issued to Russians. "While we watch these videos of bridges in Kyiv being firebombed and... dead children being dragged out of apartment blocks, to hear of Russian tourists throwing around their wealth [in Europe] — it jars with me," Sikorski stated.

According to German investigators, one individual involved in the Leipzig/Halle airport attack had a Belarusian background but a Russian passport and entered the country on a tourist visa. EU foreign ministers were scheduled to discuss bloc-wide restrictions on Russian diplomat movements and potential tourist visa limitations during a meeting in Luxembourg. Sikorski implored other EU nations to publicly attribute responsibility for Russian hybrid warfare tactics when sufficient evidence exists, stating, "for their own sake."

In separate remarks, Sikorski expressed his intention to lobby the UK government to invite Poland to the G20 summit in Manchester next year, suggesting this could be in exchange for Warsaw's support for a closer UK relationship with the EU. The UK is set to assume the presidency of the G20 group of leading economies from the United States in December.