Election analyst Nate Silver has expressed a "sneaking suspicion" that former President Donald Trump might resign before his term concludes. This prediction comes in the wake of Silver's accurate forecast of a "blue tsunami" in the recent midterm elections, which saw Democrats achieve significant gains.
On his podcast, Still Counting, Silver outlined a scenario where Trump could leave office prior to completing his term. "I had just a weird intuition that maybe Trump will find some pretense to quit, you know what I mean? Because he could get very, very, very isolated, and that also could make him dangerous," Silver stated. He characterized the Republican Party's relationship with Trump as a "deal with the devil," yielding benefits like Supreme Court appointments and tax cuts for the wealthy, but at a significant cost.
Silver suggested that Trump's influence over the Republican Party has waned, making him a "super lame duck" if Democrats maintain control of Congress, similar to George W. Bush's position after the 2006 midterms. He also speculated that Trump might step aside to allow JD Vance to assume incumbency. "I just think that Republicans made—I was searching for a more original metaphor—but a deal with the devil in Trump, right? And I don’t mean that to mean that he’s evil. I mean that in the sense of, like, you get your three Supreme Court justices, you get tax breaks for the wealthy, but you pay a lot of f***ing price for that," Silver explained.
Silver's prediction of a "blue tsunami" was based on polling data, including New York Times/Siena polls, which indicated substantial Democratic victories. According to the notes, Democrats secured at least 54 Senate seats and 250 House seats, with some contests still undecided. The party also flipped Senate seats in historically Republican states like Texas and Kansas, and could potentially win more seats in Mississippi and Alaska. In the House, Democrats confirmed 253 seats, a gain of 38, with 25 seats remaining undecided. Furthermore, Democrats won governorships in 29 states and gained "trifectas"—control of all branches of state government—in several new states.
Former Fox News anchor Gretchen Carlson commented that the theory of Trump resigning "not that far fetched." The White House has been contacted for comment. Trump has attributed recent losses to candidate quality and his absence from the ballot, while others have pointed to presidential policies and the Iran War.