Election forecaster Nate Silver has expressed a "sneaking suspicion" that former President Donald Trump might resign before his term concludes, particularly following the Democrats' strong performance in the recent midterm elections. Silver, known for his accurate prediction of a "blue tsunami" for the Democrats, discussed this possibility on his podcast, "Still Counting."
Silver theorized that Trump could become increasingly isolated and potentially "dangerous" if he perceives a loss of leverage. He described the Republican Party's alignment with Trump as a "deal with the devil," which yielded benefits like Supreme Court appointments and tax cuts but came at a significant cost, including stifling other voices within the party.
He suggested that Trump's diminished "fear factor" and waning influence over Republican lawmakers, especially after the midterm results, could lead him to step aside. Silver even speculated that Trump might resign to allow someone like J.D. Vance to assume incumbency status.
Democrats achieved significant gains in the midterms, winning at least 54 Senate seats and 250 House seats, with some contests still undecided. The party flipped Senate seats in states like Texas and Kansas, victories not seen in decades. They also secured gubernatorial races and achieved "trifectas"—control of all three branches of state government—in several states.
Silver had previously indicated that a strong Democratic performance could mark the "end of the Trump era." While acknowledging Trump would remain president for two more years, he likened his position to that of a "super lame duck" similar to George W. Bush after the 2006 midterms. Former Fox News anchor Gretchen Carlson deemed Silver's resignation theory "not that far fetched."