Nancy Pelosi’s Chosen Successor Trails in New Poll Ahead of Election Day

Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's political influence may not be enough to ensure her chosen successor wins a closely watched election, according to a new poll released this week. San Francisco supervisor Connie Chan, who received Pelosi's endorsement, is trailing state Sen. Scott Wiener two weeks before Election Day.

A University of Southern California survey of 454 likely voters, conducted between Oct. 16 and 19, found Wiener with 47% support compared to Chan's 41%. Approximately 9% of voters remain undecided. The poll's margin of error is not specified, but Wiener's lead suggests a tight race.

Pelosi, who is retiring from Congress, has actively campaigned for Chan, her endorsed candidate. However, the USC poll indicates that while Pelosi remains popular in San Francisco, her support is not directly translating to Chan's success. Christian Grose, a USC professor involved in the poll, told the San Francisco Standard that Pelosi's voter base appears to be dividing its support between Chan, who has backing from far-left progressives, and Wiener, a more establishment Democrat.

"Pelosi has endorsed the person who has far left support… so her endorsement is not translating to Chan support," Grose said. "On the other hand, Chan might be losing by a lot without the endorsement."

The poll suggests Wiener draws stronger support from voters who identify strictly as Democrats, while Chan's base is more aligned with "very liberal" voters and supporters of the Democratic Socialists of America. Grose noted that Wiener's supporters, often higher-income and more consistently Democratic voters, tend to have higher turnout rates, potentially giving him an advantage in the election.

Pelosi's endorsement was seen as a significant boost for Chan during the primary election, helping her advance to the general election against Wiener, who had been considered the frontrunner. The relationship between Wiener and Pelosi has reportedly been tense, with Wiener having long expressed interest in Pelosi's seat. Pelosi's endorsement of Chan was interpreted by some as a rebuke of Wiener.

During the campaign, Pelosi and Chan criticized Wiener for an AI chatbot that they described as "racist" and "sexist" for its commentary on Chan's policies. When asked about her involvement in the race and her stance on Wiener at a Politico event on Aug. 11, Pelosi stated her endorsement of Chan was motivated by a desire to see more women in Congress.