A political firm known as Median Strategies has admitted to fabricating multiple election polls released this month, raising alarms about the proliferation of unverified survey data in political campaigns. The organization, which has since shuttered its website, stated it was created as a "short-term social experiment" to examine how unvetted polling information spreads within the political ecosystem.
The fabricated results, which claimed to assess support in races in Wisconsin, Nevada, and Los Angeles, were posted online without clear attribution or methodological details. The Los Angeles poll, for instance, purported to show incumbent Mayor Karen Bass leading by approximately 12 percentage points. The Bass campaign shared this poll on social media, citing it as evidence of gaining momentum, before the data was revealed to be false.
Campaigns and outside groups face increasing challenges in discerning legitimate polling data from fabricated or poorly executed surveys. "It’s never been easier to make invented numbers look legitimate, and campaigns and outside groups have every incentive to amplify anything favorable before anyone verifies it," said Chris Wilson, a veteran pollster and head of the firm EyesOver. The Bass campaign has since removed its social media post promoting the poll, with a spokesman stating that "any bad faith attempts to influence elections should be investigated and prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law."
Major polling aggregators, including The New York Times, Real Clear Politics, and FiftyPlusOne, did not include the Median Strategies polls in their databases. Representatives from The New York Times and FiftyPlusOne noted that the polls lacked essential vetting information, such as the firm's identity and methodology, which are standard for credible polling organizations.
While outright admissions of falsified polling are rare, the incident echoes past instances of questionable data. In 2010, the blog Daily Kos acknowledged that polls conducted for its website by Research 2000 were fraudulent. However, it is common for polls to be released with minimal transparency regarding their methodology or funding. Many election polls are conducted by groups with a vested interest in the outcome, leading to a landscape where reliable, independent polls can be scarce.
The introduction of election prediction markets has added another layer of significance to polling data. Trading activity on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket showed slight shifts following the release of the fake Median Strategies poll, particularly concerning the Los Angeles mayoral race. The firm, however, claimed that no individual involved held or traded positions in any financial instrument tied to the covered races.
It remains unclear who is behind Median Strategies. The firm's website, before being taken offline, stated that its polling project had concluded and all previously published releases were withdrawn. The organization highlighted what it called a "credibility problem" in polling, suggesting its "fix" was to provide trustworthy data independent of partisan influence.