Most Americans Doubt Trump Will Accept Midterm Election Results If GOP Loses, Poll Finds

Six in 10 Americans express confidence that the upcoming midterm elections will be conducted fairly and accurately, according to a recent ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll. However, nearly four in 10 Americans and about three in 10 registered voters remain unconvinced.

Confidence in the fairness and accuracy of the elections is broadly shared across party lines, with similar majorities of Democrats and Republicans expressing trust. Among independents, however, confidence is slimmer, with 51% confident and 47% not confident.

Confidence in the accurate counting of votes is slightly higher, with about two-thirds of Americans believing votes will be counted accurately. This sentiment is also strong among registered voters, reaching 72%. These figures are comparable to those recorded before the 2023 presidential election and the 2022 midterms, though a slightly smaller percentage now report being "very confident."

The poll also highlighted significant public doubt regarding former President Donald Trump's willingness to accept election results. Seven in 10 Americans are not confident that Trump will accept the outcome of the midterm elections if the Republican Party loses, with half of those expressing no confidence at all. Only 28% of Americans believe Trump will accept the results in such a scenario.

This sentiment aligns with a December 2023 Washington Post-University of Maryland poll, where 71% of Americans were not confident he would accept the results of the 2024 presidential election if he lost. The current poll indicates that 94% of Democrats and 69% of independents are not confident Trump will accept midterm results if Republicans lose.

Among Republicans, a 63% majority express confidence that Trump will accept the results of a loss, though only 25% are "very confident." A more optimistic view is held by MAGA Republicans, with 74% confident, including 34% who are "very confident."

Furthermore, 61% of Americans believe Trump is not committed to free and fair elections, an increase from 56% in 2025. This view is overwhelmingly shared by Democrats (92%) and a significant majority of independents (69%), while only 15% of Republicans hold this opinion.

Regarding the control of the U.S. House of Representatives, Americans anticipate a Democratic victory by a margin of roughly two to one. Thirty-five percent expect Democrats to win, compared to 16% who expect Republicans to win. However, 28% of respondents view the contest as a tossup, and 21% are unsure.

Democrats are considerably more confident in their party's chances of winning the House (57%) than Republicans are in their party's prospects (38%). These expectations largely mirror the congressional vote choice, where Democratic candidates hold an 8-point lead over Republicans among likely voters, 52% to 44%.

Independents are more divided, with 33% expecting Democrats to win the House and 8% expecting Republicans to win. A significant portion of independents, 28%, consider the battle for the House a tossup, while 30% are undecided.

The poll was conducted from Oct. 9-13, 2026, among 2,545 U.S. adults, including 2,032 registered and likely voters. The margin of error is +/- 2 percentage points for the overall sample and +/- 2.2 points for registered and likely voters.