A Missouri judge has approved new U.S. House districts favorable to Republicans for use in the November elections, dismissing a challenge that sought to put the map to a public vote. The decision by Cole County Circuit Judge Daniel Green on Wednesday represents a significant win for the Republican party as it aims to maintain its narrow majority in the U.S. House of Representatives.
The case, however, is anticipated to proceed to the Missouri Supreme Court.
New districts in Missouri were already utilized during the August primaries. On the same day, Republican Secretary of State Denny Hoskins declined a petition with thousands of signatures that aimed to trigger a November referendum on the redistricting map. Hoskins contended that the Missouri Constitution does not permit referendums on congressional redistricting.
Judge Green concurred with Hoskins and other Republicans who supported the new map, stating, "The Missouri Constitution does not supply any statement — let alone a clear one — reallocating authority over congressional redistricting away from the General Assembly to a referendum process."
Opponents of the redistricting plan have indicated they will appeal the ruling. "Everyone knows that Cole County is not the final decision here," said Richard von Glahn, executive director of People Not Politicians, the group that filed the lawsuit. "After months of delay, we are pleased to be moving forward to the Missouri Supreme Court to enforce our constitutional rights."
The current U.S. House delegation in Missouri consists of six Republicans and two Democrats, elected from districts established after the 2020 census. Republican Governor Mike Kehoe convened a special legislative session on redistricting last year, following a call from then-President Donald Trump for Republican-led states to redraw congressional boundaries to their advantage.
The revised map is specifically designed to challenge Democratic U.S. Rep. Emanuel Cleaver of Kansas City. It redistributes parts of Kansas City into two neighboring districts held by Republicans and extends the remainder of Cleaver's 5th Congressional District eastward into heavily Republican rural areas. According to an Associated Press estimate, approximately 59% of the voters in the new 5th District are new to it. State Sen. Rick Brattin secured the Republican primary in the reshaped district in early August, while Cleaver ran unopposed for the Democratic nomination.
Republicans had argued that the new districts should be implemented for the November elections, even if a voter referendum on the map were to occur concurrently. The legal dispute arose because the Missouri Constitution neither explicitly allows nor prohibits referendums on congressional redistricting.
The office of Republican Attorney General Catherine Hanaway, representing the secretary of state, argued that congressional redistricting is a legislative function not subject to referendum without specific constitutional authorization. Attorneys for national, congressional, and state Republican committees also asserted that altering district boundaries after the primary election would lead to "widespread voter confusion" and "an erosion in confidence in the integrity of the state’s elections," making it too late to change the map before the November election. Judge Green agreed with this point, ruling that a post-primary district swap would contravene federal law.
Referendums on Missouri redistricting plans are rare; the last instance occurred over a century ago in 1922, when voters rejected a congressional map passed by the Republican-led Legislature. The validity of that referendum petition was not challenged in court.
Missouri's mid-decade redistricting effort has been a focal point of litigation nationally, with around a dozen lawsuits filed over the past year. The state was the second, after Texas, to redraw congressional districts in response to President Trump's directive. Several other states have since followed suit. Collectively, Republicans anticipate gaining as many as 16 House seats from newly drawn maps in eight states, including Texas, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, Tennessee, Louisiana, and Alabama. Democrats, facing setbacks in their counterefforts, believe they could gain up to six seats from new districts in California and Utah. It remains to be seen whether these redistricting strategies will be successful for Republicans, given that the president's party historically loses congressional seats in midterm elections and Trump's approval ratings may pose an additional challenge for Republican candidates.
