The Democratic primary race for the U.S. Senate in Michigan is intensifying ahead of Tuesday's election, with progressive challenger Abdul El-Sayed showing a surge in recent polling against incumbent U.S. Representative Haley Stevens.
El-Sayed, who has served as the health director for Detroit and Wayne County, is now leading Stevens, a current member of the U.S. House of Representatives, by double-digit margins in several recent polls. This shift in momentum comes after Stevens had previously held an advantage, bolstered by endorsements from state and national leaders. The race is considered a key battleground for the Democratic Party, representing a split between its moderate and progressive factions.
The contest for the open seat, left vacant by incumbent Democrat Gary Peters' decision not to seek re-election, is rated a "toss-up" by the Cook Political Report. Peters has endorsed Stevens, as has Governor Gretchen Whitmer.
A significant factor in the primary has been the involvement of AIPAC, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee. Estimates suggest the organization's political action committee has spent over $30 million in the race, primarily to support Stevens and oppose El-Sayed, marking its largest single-race expenditure in history.
The candidates have publicly clashed over their stances on Israel. El-Sayed has referred to Israel as a "rogue state," while Stevens has faced criticism related to the Democratic Party's increasing aversion to AIPAC and her consistent support for Israel. Stevens has warned El-Sayed that his rhetoric could lead to a general election loss to Republican nominee Mike Rogers, who has reportedly expressed confidence about his chances against El-Sayed.
El-Sayed, who has garnered support from progressive figures like Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, has also advocated for policies such as "Medicare for All." Stevens has been campaigning with the backing of mainstream Democratic leaders.
The outcome of this primary could have implications beyond the Senate race. El-Sayed has stated that a victory would position him to influence the 2028 Democratic presidential primary. Michigan is set to host one of the early presidential nominating contests in 2028, giving the winner of this Senate race a prominent platform in a state that votes before Super Tuesday.