A new Fox News poll of Michigan registered voters indicates a close contest in the state's U.S. Senate race, with Republican Mike Rogers holding a 51% to 47% lead over Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed. The poll, conducted August 6-10, 2026, reveals that while Rogers has a slight edge, Democrats are demonstrating greater engagement and enthusiasm for the upcoming election.
Rogers' lead is bolstered by strong Republican party unity, with 96% of Republicans supporting him. El-Sayed, however, garners support from 91% of Democrats and 98% of Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) supporters. His support among non-DSA Democrats falls to 69%, and independents narrowly favor Rogers. El-Sayed's coalition includes liberal voters, Black voters, urban residents, and women with a college degree, while Rogers appeals to conservatives, White evangelical Christians, rural voters, and White men without a degree. Men favor Rogers by 11 points, while women are evenly split.
Despite Rogers' narrow lead, Democrats show higher levels of interest and motivation for the election. Approximately three-quarters of supporters for both candidates are certain of their choice. More Democrats than Republicans report being extremely interested in the election, motivated to vote, and certain they will cast a ballot in November.
Voter concerns also play a role in the race. More than half of the electorate expressed concern that El-Sayed's positions are too extreme (54%), while 51% are concerned that Rogers is too close to former President Donald Trump. Democrats are twice as likely as Republicans to find El-Sayed too extreme. Independents show a 10-point greater concern over Rogers' ties to Trump than El-Sayed's issue stances.
Both candidates, as well as President Trump, have unfavorable ratings in Michigan. Trump's favorability rating is underwater by 19 points. El-Sayed has a -13 point net favorable rating, while Rogers' is -6. Both major parties also face negative perceptions, with the Democratic Party at -13 and the Republican Party at -12.
Inflation emerged as the top issue in the Michigan Senate race, cited by 38% of voters, with economic anxiety being a significant factor for many. Immigration/border security and healthcare were each cited by 14%, followed by political divisions at 11%. El-Sayed performs well among voters prioritizing inflation, healthcare, and political divisions, while Rogers leads among those focused on immigration.
The poll also surveyed the open Michigan gubernatorial race, where Democrat Jocelyn Benson leads Republican John James by 5 points (52% to 47%). Benson garners stronger support among non-DSA Democrats and independents compared to El-Sayed. Some ticket-splitting is evident, with Rogers' supporters more likely to cross over for Benson than El-Sayed supporters are for James.
The Fox News poll interviewed 1,006 Michigan registered voters and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.