Mel Kiper Jr. Downgrades Arch Manning on NFL Draft Big Board

ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr. has significantly adjusted his outlook on Texas quarterback Arch Manning, ranking him No. 24 overall and the sixth-best quarterback prospect for the 2027 NFL Draft. This represents a notable fall for Manning, who has frequently been projected as a potential top overall pick.

Manning's statistics for the season, which include a 63% completion rate, 1,122 passing yards, 10 touchdowns, and five interceptions, alongside 174 rushing yards, are cited by Kiper as contributing factors to his revised evaluation. Kiper described Manning as "too inconsistent" and stated that evaluating him would be "tough" due to the "roller coaster" nature of his play.

Despite the downgrade, Kiper places Manning ahead of Oregon quarterback Dante Moore, who was previously considered a strong contender for a high draft selection. However, Manning trails several other quarterbacks on Kiper's board, including Drew Mestemaker of Oklahoma State (No. 2 overall), Darian Mensah of Miami (No. 4), Trinidad Chambliss of Ole Miss (No. 6), C.J. Carr of Notre Dame (No. 8), and Austin Simmons of Missouri (No. 10).

Mestemaker's ascent to the top of Kiper's big board, behind only Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith, is particularly surprising given his background. Mestemaker was not a high school starter and began his college career as a walk-on before transferring to Oklahoma State.

Kiper acknowledged that Manning's draft stock could improve with a strong finish to the season. Texas has a challenging upcoming schedule, facing four ranked opponents in their next five games, including Florida, which was ranked in the top 15 before recent losses. Manning's performance in these crucial matchups will be closely watched.