Manchester City's Alleged Rule-Breaking Could Cost Rival Clubs Hundreds of Millions, Analysis Shows

An analysis by BBC Sport suggests that Manchester City's alleged financial rule-breaking between 2009 and 2018 could have cost other Premier League clubs as much as £799.5 million. The club faces 115 charges related to inflating sponsorship income and other expenses, which they deny. The potential financial impact on rival teams spans lost prize money from league placings, missed Champions League earnings, and costs associated with relegation.

The figures were calculated by examining published prize money from relevant seasons. For league placings, each team that finished below Manchester City is considered to have potentially missed out on prize money for one position. Relegation costs are based on the minimum value of staying in the Premier League for the next season, minus parachute payments. For Champions League losses, the analysis took City's earnings from subsequent seasons and deducted the impacted teams' Europa League prize money.

During the period in question, Manchester City reportedly received £1.17 billion across various competitions, including £812.3 million from the Premier League and £363.4 million from the Champions League. The Premier League charges allege that sponsorship revenues were inflated by £830 million, with an additional £90 million in expenses.

Impact on Specific Clubs

Tottenham Hotspur is estimated to be among the most financially impacted clubs, potentially losing £120 million. This figure includes lost Champions League prize money over four seasons where they finished outside the qualifying positions, a deficit exacerbated by Manchester City's earnings from the competition. For instance, in the 2014-15 season, Manchester City earned £71.2 million from reaching the Champions League semi-finals, while Tottenham received £17.7 million from the Europa League.

Liverpool could have lost approximately £48.5 million. This includes potential earnings from the Europa League, which they might have qualified for had they won the 2015-16 EFL Cup final against Manchester City. Instead, Liverpool finished eighth that season, missing out on European qualification, while Manchester United later earned £37.8 million from winning the Europa League in 2016-17.

Hull City faces an estimated loss of £99 million due to two relegations during the period. The analysis suggests that teams finishing 18th could argue they might have avoided relegation if Manchester City's squad had not been assembled with the alleged inflated finances. The potential loss for Hull includes prize money from finishing 20th in subsequent seasons and parachute payments.

Other clubs like Swansea (£63.1 million), Newcastle (£60.4 million), Norwich (£43.8 million), Wigan (£39.6 million), Burnley (£31.1 million), Bolton (£26.4 million), and Birmingham (£25.1 million) also face significant estimated losses due to relegation.

Champions League Qualification and League Places

Beyond relegation, several clubs narrowly missed out on Champions League qualification, a competition that offers substantial financial rewards. Chelsea is estimated to have lost £39.8 million after finishing fifth in the 2017-18 season, when Manchester City earned £79.2 million from reaching the Champions League quarter-finals. Everton and Arsenal also experienced deficits of £32.6 million and £22.1 million respectively, after finishing fifth in their respective seasons.

The financial implications of league placings are also significant. Broadcast revenue in the Premier League is distributed based on final league position, with higher finishes yielding more. The value of a Premier League place increased significantly during the period in question. Everton, Liverpool, and Stoke City are estimated to have the largest claims for lost league place money, totaling £10.7 million each, having finished below Manchester City in all nine relevant seasons.