Zohran Mamdani leads former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo by 22 percentage points in a New York Times/Siena College poll of likely New York City voters, a commanding margin as the mayoral contest approaches in early November.
The survey, conducted Sept. 2–6, found Mamdani, who describes himself as a Democratic Socialist, would draw 46% support if the race were held today, including leaners. Cuomo trailed at 24%, with Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa at 15% and incumbent Mayor Eric Adams at 9%. The poll’s margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.6 percentage points among the likely electorate.
Mamdani gained prominence after winning the Democratic primary earlier this year and has drawn endorsements from progressive figures including Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. His campaign has emphasized progressive policy proposals and efforts to persuade higher-income New Yorkers that higher taxes could improve quality of life; he has also faced questions about a failed city-run grocery store effort in Kansas City and has defended his approach.
Cuomo, who served three terms as governor before resigning in 2021, remains the race’s principal establishment challenger but is well behind in the survey. Sliwa, the Republican contender, and Adams, the current mayor, showed limited support in the poll, underscoring a competitive dynamic largely concentrated on the Democratic side.
The New York Times/Siena College poll sampled likely voters across the city and asked whom respondents would support if the contest were held during the survey period. The results mark an early snapshot of voter preferences; polls do not determine outcomes but can shape campaign strategy and media attention as candidates prepare for the early November election.
The contest has drawn heightened attention from national figures and progressive organizations, with public endorsements and criticism surfacing as campaigns seek to consolidate support. Campaign officials for the leading candidates have been contacted for comment as the race moves into its final months.
Analysts said the poll’s findings highlight the consolidation of progressive support behind Mamdani and underscore challenges for candidates seeking to broaden their appeal across the city’s diverse electorate. Voter turnout, campaign messaging and debates over policy priorities are likely to be pivotal in the weeks leading up to the election.