Zohran Mamdani holds a commanding 21-point lead over former Gov. Andrew Cuomo in the New York City mayoral race, according to a Marist University Institute for Public Opinion survey released Tuesday.
The poll found 45% of likely voters would back the Queens assemblyman, 24% would support Cuomo, 17% favored Republican Curtis Sliwa and 9% chose incumbent Mayor Eric Adams; 5% were undecided. The survey of 885 likely voters was conducted Sept. 8–11 by live phone interviews, text responses and online, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points. The poll was completed before Gov. Kathy Hochul publicly endorsed Mamdani.
Mamdani’s strength is concentrated among younger, Black and liberal voters. Among respondents under 45, 62% backed Mamdani compared with 14% for Cuomo. Nearly half of likely Black voters (47%) said they would support Mamdani, while 26% favored Cuomo. Mamdani also led with non-white voters overall (51%), Latinos (52%) and won every borough, including a 33-point advantage in Brooklyn. Jewish voters were split, with 35% for Mamdani and 35% for Cuomo.
The survey examined several alternate matchups. If Adams were to drop out, Mamdani’s advantage over Cuomo narrows to 16 points — 46% to 30% — with Sliwa on 18%. In a hypothetical two-way contest between Mamdani and Cuomo, Mamdani’s lead shrinks to 10 points, with 49% to Cuomo’s 39%; the remaining 12% would vote for another candidate or were undecided.
Pollster Lee Miringoff said the numbers show Mamdani building momentum. “Mamdani is running up the score,” Miringoff said. “It’s getting late early.” He noted Mamdani’s high favorability among the electorate: 52% of likely voters had a favorable impression of Mamdani and 40% an unfavorable view. Cuomo’s favorability trailed, with 39% favorable and 59% unfavorable. Adams and Sliwa had higher unfavorable ratings, with 68% viewing Adams unfavorably and 51% viewing Sliwa unfavorably.
Ideological breakdowns underscore the divide. Very liberal voters favored Mamdani by 86%, and liberal voters by 65%. Moderates preferred Cuomo 35% to Mamdani’s 31%. Conservatives were more likely to back Sliwa (42%) than Cuomo (24%), Adams (16%) or Mamdani (14%). Voters over age 45 were more split: 33% for Mamdani, 30% for Cuomo, 21% for Sliwa and 8% for Adams.
Cuomo has targeted Mamdani on issues including the candidate’s past support for the boycott movement against Israel, a line of attack that has played amid broader concerns about antisemitism in the city’s politics. The Marist poll indicates those attacks have not eroded Mamdani’s support among the blocs propelling his lead.
Sliwa, the former Guardian Angels founder and the Republican nominee, said he would not exit the race despite appeals from former President Donald Trump to step aside to create a more direct contest against Mamdani.
Miringoff suggested Cuomo could try to narrow the gap by highlighting progressive accomplishments from his tenure as governor, and by using debates and the closing weeks of the campaign to court younger and liberal voters who currently prefer Mamdani. The pollster said the dynamics could change as voters pay closer attention to debates and the Nov. 4 general election approaches.
The Marist results mirror several other recent surveys showing a double-digit advantage for Mamdani in the fractured field, in which Cuomo and Adams are also running on independent ballot lines. With more than half of voters viewing Mamdani favorably and substantial leads among key demographic groups, the poll underscores the challenge facing Cuomo and other rivals in consolidating sufficient support to overtake the front-runner.
The Marist University Institute for Public Opinion conducted the poll from Sept. 8–11 with 885 likely voters, using live interviews, text responses and online methods. The sampling yields a reported margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.