Maine Senate Race Deadlocked as Voters Express Economic Pessimism, Disapprove of Trump

The race for the U.S. Senate in Maine is a tight contest between Republican incumbent Susan Collins and Democratic challenger Troy Jackson, with both candidates polling at 49%, according to a new Fox News poll. The survey of Maine likely voters also indicates widespread voter dissatisfaction, with 62% disapproving of President Donald Trump's job performance.

Collins, seeking a sixth term in the Senate after first winning her seat three decades ago, faces a challenging environment in a state that President Trump lost in 2024. While Collins won her previous election by nearly nine points, the current poll suggests a much closer race. The Democratic effort to regain control of the Senate views Maine as a crucial seat, with 53% of voters preferring a Democratic-led Senate compared to 45% who want Republican leadership.

Despite the overall tie in the horse race, Jackson holds a significant advantage among Democrats, leading Collins by 16 points within that party's voters. Jackson also leads among those who have already cast their ballots, by 40 points, and among those who say they are "certain" to vote. However, Collins has an edge among voters who plan to vote on Election Day, leading by 12 points.

Concerns about Collins voting too often with President Trump were cited by 53% of voters, while 46% expressed concern that Jackson is too liberal. President Trump's job approval rating in Maine stands at 37%, with 62% disapproving, including 54% who strongly disapprove. This negative sentiment toward the president poses a challenge for Republican candidates in the state.

Both candidates have negative personal favorability ratings. Jackson is viewed negatively by 2 points (47% favorable, 49% unfavorable), and Collins by 4 points (47% favorable, 51% unfavorable).

Demographic breakdowns reveal distinct voting patterns. Voters under 45 favor Collins by 6 points, while those aged 45 and older prefer Jackson by 3 points. Women support Jackson by 5 points, while men back Collins by 4 points. A significant divide exists based on education, with voters holding a college degree favoring Jackson by 23 points, while Collins leads among those without a degree by 16 points. In rural areas, Collins holds a 7-point lead, while Jackson leads among suburban voters by 18 points. For comparison, Collins won both rural voters and those without a college degree by 18 points in 2020.

"Republicans appear to be struggling with White rural voters this cycle, and Maine is no exception," said Daron Shaw, a Republican pollster for the Fox News Poll. "GOP candidates desperately need these voters to show up, and need something like a 65-35 vote to overcome Democratic strength in urban areas."

Party loyalty is strong for both candidates, with approximately 90% of each party's faithful supporting their respective nominee. Independent voters, a smaller but potentially decisive bloc, favor Collins by 13 points. Both Jackson and Collins supporters express a high degree of certainty in their vote.

In Maine's gubernatorial race, Democrat Hannah Pingree leads Republican Bobby Charles by 10 points, 49% to 39%, with independent candidate Rick Bennett at 9%. While Jackson's supporters largely back Pingree, a notable portion of Collins' supporters are defecting to either Bennett or Pingree.

The Fox News Poll was conducted October 16-20, 2026, with interviews of 1,689 Maine registered voters. The margin of sampling error for the registered voter sample is ±2 percentage points, and for the subsample of 1,514 likely voters, it is ±2.5 percentage points.