Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has opened as the betting favorite to win the 2026 NFL Comeback Player of the Year award, according to Kalshi odds. The three-time Super Bowl MVP suffered a torn ACL and LCL in his left knee during Week 15 of the 2025 NFL season.
Mahomes currently holds 36 percent of the market share on Kalshi. Following him is Kyler Murray of the Vikings with 17 percent, and Giants wide receiver Malik Nabers with eight percent. A group including Daniel Jones, Micah Parsons, and Tucker Kraft each hold six percent of the market.
The Comeback Player of the Year award traditionally honors perseverance through significant injury or physical setbacks. Last season, 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey received the award after an injury-plagued 2024 campaign.
Mahomes is attempting to become the eighth quarterback since 2018 to win the award. He is on track for a Week 1 return after months of rehabilitation.
Mahomes signed an eight-year, $504.75 million contract extension in early June. He is coming off a season where he recorded 422 rushing yards and five touchdowns on the ground. With offensive coordinator Andy Reid and Eric Bieniemy, who previously helped guide Mahomes to two Super Bowl wins, the quarterback is expected to have a statistically strong season.
The Chiefs' offensive lineup includes returning players Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice, and Xavier Worthy, along with newly acquired running back Kenneth Walker III. Oddsmakers have set the Chiefs at 16/1 to win the Super Bowl and +750 to win the AFC crown.