Los Angeles has been identified as the U.S. metropolitan area with the highest exposure to wildfire risks, according to a new analysis by Cotality. The report highlights that California leads the nation in wildfire exposure, with over 1.28 million properties facing moderate or greater risk, accounting for approximately $850 billion in potential reconstruction costs.
California's wildfire exposure significantly outweighs that of other Western states. The state has more than five times the number of at-risk properties compared to Colorado, which ranks second with over 300,000 properties facing risk. Texas, Oregon, and Arizona follow, with hundreds of thousands of properties also exposed.
Six of the nation's top 10 most exposed metropolitan areas are located in California. Los Angeles leads this group with 249,105 at-risk properties valued at $209.2 billion. Riverside and San Diego also rank in the top five, with significant numbers of properties and high reconstruction cost values.
"People watch the Sorrento Fire from a cliff edge in the Sorrento Valley area of San Diego on Sunday, August 16, 2026."
The analysis evaluated 6.8 million California homes, assessing wildfire mitigation measures such as fire-resistant roofing and cleared brush using a scoring model aligned with insurance rate regulations. The findings indicate a substantial difference in losses based on property preparedness. The top 10% of the most prepared properties in California experience 78% lower losses than average, while the bottom 10% face losses over ten times the average.
Cotality scientists noted that while El Niño events in 2026 may alter regional wildfire patterns, they are unlikely to eliminate the risk entirely. Conditions in the Southwest are expected to ease with winter precipitation, but the Pacific Northwest may experience drier conditions conducive to larger, more extreme fires.
The report also identified more than 2.5 million properties across the 10 most exposed states in the western U.S. that carry a moderate or greater risk of wildfire. This concentration of risk is driven by high property values and the proximity of dense populations to wildland-urban interfaces.