Longtime Serbian Leader Faces Toughest Election Amid Student Protests

Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić resigned in September and is now running for prime minister in parliamentary elections, widely considered the most competitive in the country's recent history. This marks the biggest political test of his 14-year tenure.

The student-led opposition, known as the Student List, has gained significant traction, capturing public attention and momentum in a way that established opposition parties have struggled to achieve. Helena Ivanov, an associate fellow at the Henry Jackson Society, noted that the students have been able to mobilize popular support, turning a spontaneous protest movement into a legitimate political contender.

The Student List, composed of civil society actors and academics rather than traditional politicians, prioritizes tackling corruption and promoting transparency and the rule of law. Filip Ubović, a student protester, stated that many joined because they were tired of the country's current state and saw this as an opportunity for tangible change.

This election comes after a year of student-led anti-corruption protests that began in November 2024, following the collapse of a railway station canopy in Novi Sad that resulted in 16 deaths. Protesters criticized the government for its failure to hold anyone accountable for the incident. After their demands were unmet, the students shifted their focus to electoral politics.

Despite the student movement's surge in popularity, Serbian Foreign Minister Marko Djurić expressed skepticism about their chances, asserting that the public sees through their lack of a credible program for the country's future. Djurić highlighted Serbia's economic growth under Vučić, citing a GDP increase from 32 billion euros to over 100 billion euros during his time in office.

Concerns have been raised by international observers and a bipartisan group of U.S. senators about the fairness of the election environment and the potential for the government to disregard the outcome if the opposition wins. A bill introduced by Senators Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) and Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) aims to condition future aid to Serbia on progress in judicial accountability, press freedom, and alignment with the EU and NATO.

Vučić, who served as president since 2017 and prime minister from 2014 to 2017, is term-limited as president. His move to run for prime minister allows him to potentially remain in power. He dissolved parliament in September, setting the stage for the snap election. Throughout his presidency, Vučić has maintained a delicate geopolitical balance, pursuing EU accession talks while preserving close ties with Russia, even after the invasion of Ukraine.

The Student List's potential impact on Serbia's foreign policy remains uncertain. Analysts suggest that any significant shift away from Russia or a substantial reorientation toward the U.S. and EU might not occur immediately, with a period of continued hedging likely. The resolution of issues such as the Kosovo crisis and closer ties with the EU are also unclear.