Liberty Faces Top-Seeded Lynx in WNBA Playoff Opener

The New York Liberty will begin their 2026 playoff campaign against the top-seeded Minnesota Lynx on Sunday, facing a familiar opponent from the 2024 WNBA Finals. After dropping their last two games to the Atlanta Dream, Breanna Stewart and the Liberty secured the eighth seed, setting up a challenging matchup with the championship favorites.

The Lynx, who finished the regular season with a 33-11 record, secured the No. 1 overall seed for the second consecutive year. Minnesota split a home-and-home series against the Indiana Fever in their final regular-season games, with Olivia Miles reportedly resting a calf injury ahead of the playoff opener.

Despite the Liberty's two double-digit victories over the Lynx during the regular season and taking the season series 2-1, Minnesota enters Game 1 as 6.5-point favorites. Only four of the Lynx's eleven losses were by ten or more points, with the Liberty responsible for two of those defeats. The Liberty's key players, including Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu, and Jonquel Jones, are experienced in high-stakes games, and the team may embrace the challenge of facing the top seed.

Olivia Miles, a frontrunner for Rookie of the Year, is set to make her postseason debut after a strong regular season. Miles averaged 19 points, six rebounds, and 4.7 assists against the Liberty this season. However, New York's defense managed to hold her below 32 percent shooting in their losses to the Liberty and forced five turnovers in their most recent win on September 18.

Stewart brings a wealth of playoff experience, holding an 8-2 career record against the Lynx dating back to her time with the Seattle Storm. Her presence in the paint and high post is expected to challenge Napheesa Collier's defense, while Jones's rebounding ability could pose problems for the Lynx's shorter forwards like Natasha Howard.

Minnesota's depth appears to be a potential weakness, as their bench scoring, averaging 15.4 points per game, ranked lowest in the league. This could create an advantage for the Liberty, who are favored to cover the 6.5-point spread, particularly given their past performance at the Target Center.

The game's outcome may hinge on the Liberty's physicality and experience, with Stewart and Jones's presence in the paint potentially creating difficulties for the Lynx. The betting prediction favors the Liberty to cover the spread, with odds of -105 on BetMGM for Liberty +6.5.