Liberty Face Familiar Foe in Minnesota Lynx in WNBA Playoffs
After an injury-plagued regular season, the eighth-seeded New York Liberty aim to upset the top-seeded Minnesota Lynx in a highly anticipated playoff matchup.
The New York Liberty enter the WNBA postseason with an opportunity to define their season, facing a familiar opponent in the top-seeded Minnesota Lynx. Despite a 26-18 record marred by injuries, the Liberty are the eighth seed, looking to overcome their regular-season struggles against a dominant Lynx team.
The Liberty have spent the season experimenting with lineups and offensive schemes under first-year head coach Chris DeMarco, a process intended to prepare them for this playoff moment. Their path to the postseason has been described as winding, contrasting with the Lynx's season-long status as the league's top team.
Key Matchups
Olivia Miles vs. Liberty Defense
The availability and performance of Minnesota's Olivia Miles, who missed the final two games with a calf injury, remain a critical question. The Liberty's defensive strategy aims not to stop Miles entirely, but to slow her down. In their last meeting on September 18, a 93-81 Liberty victory, Miles struggled with her shooting early on, facing consistent pressure from Liberty defenders Leonie Fiebich, Pauline Astier, and Rebekah Gardner. Jonquel Jones also contributed with blocks near the rim. Miles still managed 20 points, eight rebounds, and five assists in that game, but the Liberty's physicality appeared to frustrate her.
Breanna Stewart vs. Lynx Defense
Breanna Stewart's health is also a key storyline. She missed the Liberty's regular-season finale due to left knee soreness, though coach DeMarco called it a precautionary measure. Stewart has historically performed well against the Lynx, averaging 25.7 points and eight rebounds in their three games this season. She has also been effective from beyond the arc, shooting six of 10 three-pointers in the regular-season series. Napheesa Collier is expected to draw the primary defensive assignment on Stewart, despite Collier operating at an estimated 80-85 percent capacity following offseason ankle surgery.
Three-Point Shooting
The Liberty are a high-volume three-point shooting team, averaging 29.3 attempts per game. However, the Lynx have shown greater efficiency from deep. A critical factor for the Liberty will be the performance of Sabrina Ionescu, who has struggled with her three-point efficiency for two consecutive seasons, shooting below 30 percent.
Depth and Coaching
The Liberty possess a deeper bench, averaging 23.4 points per game from reserves, significantly higher than the Lynx's league-low 15.4 points from their bench. This could provide the Liberty with an advantage in managing starter minutes. However, the Lynx are coached by Cheryl Reeve, the WNBA's all-time winningest coach with a 52-31 postseason record and multiple championships. DeMarco, while experienced from the NBA, is in his first year in the WNBA and navigating a new playoff format.
Prediction
While the Liberty won a recent three-game series against the Lynx, the full season's body of work favors Minnesota. The Lynx have been consistent throughout the season, whereas the Liberty's performance has been more variable. Despite Stewart's strong play, the Lynx are predicted to win the series in three games, potentially enacting revenge for the 2024 Finals.