Lawmakers are expressing concern over prediction markets that allow users to bet on wildfire events, raising fears that individuals could be incentivized to commit arson. Platforms like Polymarket have offered wagers on when and where fires might spread or be contained, attracting significant betting volume, with over $1 million wagered on California fires last year alone.
A new market, Wyldfyre, has reportedly launched with a specific focus on wildfire betting. This development has prompted warnings from legislators, including Senator Jeff Merkley (D-OR), who highlight that, unlike many natural disasters, fires can be deliberately started or exacerbated by human actions.
In a letter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Merkley and eight other Democratic senators stated that offering bets on wildfires risks trivializing community suffering for financial gain. They also pointed to an elevated risk, cited by state and local fire officials, that individuals might be tempted to commit arson to ensure the success of their bets. The senators warned that such prediction markets could inadvertently encourage people to influence existing fires, thereby creating further public safety and insider trading concerns.
The 2026 wildfire season on the West Coast is already proving severe, with Oregon recording over 2 million acres burned, surpassing a record set in 2024. Wildfires have increasingly impacted urban and suburban areas, such as Spokane, Washington, and smoke from the Pacific Northwest has drifted as far east as New England.
While climate change contributes to drier, hotter summers that fuel fires, policy decisions are also cited as exacerbating the crisis. Staff cuts to the U.S. Forest Service have reportedly strained the agency's ability to respond to fires, and planned reorganizations may lead to the closure of Forest Service labs that research and track wildfires. Additionally, EPA research into wildfires and their smoke has been reduced. A shift away from allowing some fires to burn naturally, implemented during the Trump administration, has also increased the workload for wildland firefighters. According to Reuters, firefighters are being overrun by wildfires at the highest rate in two decades.