Nine Democratic senators have asked the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to establish new rules prohibiting prediction markets from offering bets on wildfires. The lawmakers expressed concern that such markets could incentivize arson and allow individuals to profit from destructive events.
In a letter sent this week, the senators argued that "offering bets on destructive wildfires threatens to minimize communities’ suffering all so the rich and powerful can profit." They also highlighted the risk, as cited by state and local fire officials, that individuals might be tempted to commit arson to ensure their bets are successful.
The lawmakers pointed to past instances of wildfire-related betting on platforms like Polymarket, the largest prediction market globally. According to historian Jamie L. Pietruska, Polymarket accepted over $1.2 million in bets concerning California’s Palisades and Eaton fires in early 2025.
They also noted the emergence of a betting platform specifically focused on profiting from fires, although the site lacked contact information and did not appear to be operational as of Thursday. The senators stated that prediction market sites offering contracts on fires risk encouraging people to influence ongoing fires, raising public safety and insider trading concerns.
Currently, wildfire bets are primarily available through offshore sites like Polymarket. The senators warned that it is likely only a matter of time before U.S.-based Designated Contract Markets (DCMs) begin offering similar contracts. The CFTC has been asked to respond to several questions by August 14.
Representatives for the CFTC and Polymarket did not immediately respond to requests for comment.