Latino Voters in Florida Show Growing Frustration with Trump, Sparking GOP Concerns

William Diaz, a Venezuelan immigrant who has lived in Florida for 37 years, does not align strictly with any political party. He has previously supported Republican figures like Sen. Rick Scott and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. However, for the current midterm elections, Diaz expressed his unhappiness with President Donald Trump's immigration policies and their impact on his community.

"My people have been suffering that much," Diaz told TIME, referencing Trump's deportation agenda and the actions of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). Diaz is among over 2.6 million Floridians who have already cast their ballots early or by mail. The Latino electorate in Florida, a diverse group with varied national origins and political leanings, is considered a crucial swing vote in many statewide contests. In 2024, Latino voters were instrumental in Trump's victory in Florida, with 56% supporting him over Kamala Harris, according to the American Electorate Voter Poll.

However, recent polls suggest a potential shift in Latino support away from the Republican Party, a development that could significantly impact Florida's upcoming elections and the broader political landscape.

Latino Frustration with Immigration and Economy

Stephanie Valencia, co-founder of Equis Research, notes that dissatisfaction among Florida's Latino voters reflects a national trend. Concerns over the economy and immigration enforcement tactics are key drivers, disproportionately affecting this demographic. A Univision/YouGov poll conducted in October found that 41% of registered Latino voters in Florida worried about potential detention or direct impact from immigration enforcement, compared to 27% of Florida voters overall. The same poll revealed that 4 in 10 Latino voters felt their financial situation had worsened in the past year, with 70% disapproving of Trump's handling of the cost of living—a rate higher than the 63% disapproval among Florida voters as a whole.

Johanna Chavez, a Dominican immigrant in Kissimmee, echoed these sentiments, highlighting concerns about the rising cost of rent and gasoline. She expressed disappointment that promised improvements had not materialized, feeling that the opportunities she sought in the U.S. had not come to fruition. Jared Nordlund of UnidosUS points to tariffs and the war in Iran as contributing factors to economic hardship, particularly the impact of rising gas prices on Floridians who rely heavily on cars for transportation.

Shifting Support and Political Repercussions

Trump's approval rating among Latino voters in Florida has reportedly declined significantly, dropping from 58% at the start of his term to 36% before the midterm elections, according to Equis Research. An AP-NORC poll in October indicated that about 6 in 10 Latino voters disapprove of Trump's presidency, with over 7 in 10 disapproving of his economic policies. A Pew Research Center poll showed Trump's job approval among Latino voters falling from 38% in February 2025 to 24% by September and October. Among those who supported him in the last election, his approval dropped from 93% in early 2025 to 57%.

This shift has been noted by figures like Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-Miami-Dade), who has publicly criticized Trump's immigration policies, stating in a campaign ad that his deportation agenda had "gone too far." She highlighted that in July, 50% of 50,000 detained individuals had no criminal record and warned Trump that "the same Hispanics who helped you get to the White House in 2024 feel betrayed today."

Challenges in Translating Frustration into Votes

Despite widespread frustration, translating this discontent into Democratic votes presents challenges. Guillermo Grenier, a professor of sociology at Florida International University, notes that while many Latino voters are unhappy with Trump, the unique demographics of Florida's Latino electorate, particularly the large Cuban American population in South Florida, complicate the political calculus. In 2024, 68% of likely Cuban American voters in Miami-Dade County supported Trump, according to FIU's Cuba poll.

Grenier suggests that while many Cuban Americans may be "pissed off at Trump, they're still Republicans." The Democratic Party faces a "probationary period" to prove it can deliver on its promises to Latino voters, according to Valencia. Experts suggest that Democrats need sustained investment in Florida to build durable support.

Key Florida Races to Watch

Several key races in Florida are being closely monitored. Despite the state leaning Republican in recent cycles, Democrats are increasing their campaigning and financing efforts. The Florida Democratic Party reported a net gain in active registered voters over Republicans in October.

In the gubernatorial race, Republican Byron Donalds, endorsed by Trump, is facing Democrat David Jolly. A University of North Florida poll found Donalds leading Jolly 49% to 47%, within the margin of error. Latino voters favored Jolly over Donalds 48% to 43%, according to the Univision/YouGov poll, even as Donalds held an overall lead among Florida voters.

The Democratic Governors Association has announced a $1 million investment to support Jolly's campaign in the final weeks before Election Day.

In congressional races, Salazar is in a tight race against Democratic challenger Eliott Rodriguez, leading by only 1 point according to a September poll. For the state Senate, Democrat Angie Nixon is trailing Republican incumbent Sen. Ashley Moody by 49% to 45%, a narrower margin than in July.

National Democratic leaders, including Sen. Bernie Sanders and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, have visited Florida to support Democratic candidates, underscoring the importance of these races. However, incidents, such as a Cuban influencer's criticism of a bakery hosting Jeffries for perceived association with socialism, highlight the work Democrats still need to do to gain trust within certain segments of the Florida Latino community. Grenier suggests that Democrats need to maintain consistent investment and support for local leaders to build a stronger base for future elections, likening the effort to the decade-long investment by Republicans that preceded their flip of the state in 1996.