Rep. David Valadao, a Republican representing California's heavily Latino Central Valley district, is facing a potentially shifting electoral landscape as signs indicate growing disenchantment among Latino voters with former President Donald Trump. This trend could challenge Valadao's ability to maintain his seat in a district where Hispanic voters constitute two-thirds of the electorate.
While Valadao has historically benefited from voting patterns that favored Republicans in his rural district, recent polling suggests a change. AP-NORC national polling indicates a 18-percentage-point drop in Trump's approval among Hispanic adults between March 2025 and July 2026, compared to a 9-point drop among all U.S. adults during the same period. Factors such as rising costs for gas, fertilizer, and groceries, coupled with perceived declines in healthcare funding, are cited as potential reasons for this shift.
Valadao, who is one of the last members of his caucus to have voted for Trump's impeachment following the January 6th Capitol attack, is attempting to navigate these changing dynamics. His campaign literature emphasizes putting "people before political parties," yet volunteers at phone banks have reportedly used pitches aimed at mobilizing Republican voters by asking about completing Trump's agenda.
The 22nd Congressional District, where Valadao serves, has seen increased spending from both parties, making it one of the most expensive races in the country. Republicans have allocated over $13 million for advertising, with Democrats slightly behind at $12.6 million. The district's boundaries were redrawn after 2025, resulting in a 16-point voter registration advantage for Democrats.
Valadao's Democratic challenger, Randy Villegas, a progressive endorsed by Sen. Bernie Sanders, is campaigning on policies like Medicare for All, arguing that many constituents face difficult choices between essential needs like groceries and healthcare. Valadao, whose family emigrated from the Azores, Portugal, is attempting to portray Villegas as too extreme, suggesting his policies echo those of socialist-leaning governments that some constituents may have fled.
Valadao's past electoral successes in this district, which he first won in 2012, lost in 2018, and reclaimed in 2020, have been attributed to his independent streak and focus on local issues such as water for farmers. However, the current political climate and economic pressures are presenting new obstacles. Some voters, like Scott Alcoser, a parts manager who previously supported Valadao, are now undecided, seeking clearer commitments on how the congressman will address community needs amidst economic struggles. Census data indicates that nearly one in four people in the district live below the poverty line.
Other voters, such as Elena Van Overbeek, a retired law enforcement officer, have shifted their support away from Valadao, citing disappointment with the lack of economic improvement and concerns about healthcare cuts. Conversely, some longtime residents, like retired nurse Margie Lopez and salon owner Celestina Rodriguez, continue to express support for Valadao, citing his local roots and general trustworthiness, with Lopez indicating she does not trust Democrats and Rodriguez describing herself as conservative.
Villegas has criticized Valadao's vote for a 2025 tax bill that included significant tax breaks alongside projected cuts to healthcare and food assistance programs. Democrats estimate that up to 57,000 constituents in Valadao's district, which has a high Medicaid enrollment rate, could lose coverage due to new work requirements and shifts of federal costs to states, though Valadao dismisses these projections as overstated.
Political strategists acknowledge the challenge Valadao faces. Mike Madrid, a Republican strategist specializing in Latino voting trends, suggested that economic headwinds and the district's demographic makeup create a difficult environment for the incumbent. However, Republican consultant Cathy Abernathy believes Valadao's ability to connect with Central Valley voters, who she describes as pragmatic and focused on maintaining their lifestyles, could lead to his victory.
Valadao's past political stances have varied; he did not support Trump in 2016, backed him in 2020, and has not disclosed his vote in 2024. He has also been reticent to comment on his impeachment vote, stating he would "let history decide." Political science professor Jeffrey Cummins suggests that for Democrats to unseat Valadao in this swing race, a direct tie to Trump will be crucial, and failure to do so this year might diminish future prospects.