A recent Opinium poll indicates a shift in public support, with the Labour party now leading Reform by four percentage points, marking the first time Labour has held an outright lead in 15 months. The poll shows Labour at 27 percent support, Reform at 23 percent, and the Conservatives at 17 percent.
This represents a notable increase for Labour, which registered 22 percent support on July 18, prior to the current Prime Minister's ascension. At that time, Reform held a lead, and as recently as June, Nigel Farage's party had a seven-point advantage over Labour.
The surge in Labour's support has prompted government ministers to downplay speculation about a snap general election. The Prime Minister, Andy Burnham, has also publicly stated that there are no plans for an early election, with the next vote not constitutionally due until 2029.
Burnham's personal approval rating has reportedly risen to plus 16 following a series of policy announcements, including a 5 percent VAT reduction on electricity bills and a cap on single bus fares at £2. However, analysts note that this rating is below the initial rating of Keir Starmer and lower than Theresa May's starting point.
Priya Minhas, political and social director at Opinium, commented on the findings, stating that Burnham has experienced a "significant honeymoon bounce." She attributed much of the improvement to Labour regaining voters who had previously shifted to the Green party. Minhas highlighted that voters perceive Burnham's strongest personal attributes as being likeable, competent, and decisive, qualities that appear to be influencing a greater willingness to support the Labour party.
The upcoming budget on October 28 is anticipated to be a crucial moment for Burnham, given the current pressures on public finances and the possibility of further tax increases. Both Labour and Reform have seen shifts in their support base, with the latest poll suggesting a move away from Reform for some voters.
