Labour has moved ahead of Reform in a new national voting poll, with support for the party now at 24 percent, according to YouGov polling conducted between August 9 and 10. Reform has dropped to 22 percent, its lowest support level since March of the previous year. The Conservative Party, led by Kemi Badenoch, is polling at 21 percent, placing them just one point behind Reform.
These gains for Labour appear to come at the expense of the Green Party and Liberal Democrats. The Green Party has fallen to 12 percent support, down one point, and the Liberal Democrats are at 11 percent, also down one point. The Green Party's support has declined nine points from its February peak, a shift away from what is described as leader Zack Polanski's "eco-populism."
Political strategist James Johnson advised the current Prime Minister to consider calling a snap general election to capitalize on this shift, which he termed the "Burnham-bounce." Johnson suggested that a national election could result in a substantial majority, allow the government to escape manifesto constraints, and disrupt opponents.
A spokesperson for Reform UK responded to the idea of a snap election by stating, "bring it on." However, a Green Party spokesperson expressed skepticism, calling the surge a "small honeymoon period, a bob rather than a bounce," and suggested that Labour's current leader is merely reiterating previous announcements without addressing underlying issues. They noted the rapid changes in politics and polling.
Despite the internal polling shift, Andy Burnham has publicly ruled out calling a general election. Instead, he has announced a series of policy measures aimed at providing financial relief to households during his initial weeks in office. Meanwhile, Labour backbenchers have been engaged in campaigning over the summer. Luke Akehurst, the Labour MP for North Durham, stated that while he is encouraged by the early improvement, he remains focused on the work needed nationally and locally to secure a second term, emphasizing that there is still a long way to go.