Labour Set to Miss Housing Target by Half a Million Homes, Analysis Shows
Official figures suggest the government will fall significantly short of its 1.5 million housebuilding pledge, with critics blaming tax hikes and red tape.
The Labour government is on course to miss its pledge to build 1.5 million homes by approximately 500,000, according to an analysis of official figures. The Land Value Calculator estimates that fewer than one million homes will be constructed during the current parliamentary term, falling one-third short of the stated target.
This projection follows an admission by Housing Secretary Angela Rayner that there is only a "slim chance" the 1.5 million home target will be met by 2029. Recent estimates for the number of homes built last year have been revised downwards to 196,900, indicating England is currently 223,000 homes behind schedule.
The analysis suggests that the gap is widening by 282 homes per day. To achieve the target, the government would need to build 1,041 homes daily until July 2029, nearly double the current rate of 539 homes per day.
Completions for the year ending June 2026 are reported as the lowest since 2016. Furthermore, the number of homes granted planning permission has decreased by 30% over the past four years. The Ministry of Housing, Communities and Government (MHCLG) previously downgraded its estimate for homes built last year from 199,500 to 196,900.
Since the last general election, approximately 437,900 homes have been built, falling short of the 660,000 that should have been completed by this point to remain on track. While housebuilding starts have reportedly increased by 15% in the last year, the analysis indicates that this rise is largely due to a recovery in London, with starts in the rest of the country increasing by only about 5%.
The number of homes granted planning permission fell by 12% in the past year to 212,000. Researchers noted that homes not yet granted planning permission are unlikely to be completed by the 2029 deadline.
A spokesperson for landvaluecalculator.co.uk stated that the government is on course to miss its pledge by a third and build about half the homes its own assessment deems necessary for England. They highlighted that while starts are up, completions are at their lowest since 2016 and the stock of homes with planning permission has significantly shrunk.
Critics have pointed to the shortfall, with Labour's shadow housing secretary asserting that "tax hikes and red tape have made building unviable." The MHCLG spokesperson countered that the government is "determined to get this country building again," citing a 20% increase in new housing starts compared to the previous year and 298% increase in London alone as evidence that planning reforms are effective.