Labour Set to Miss Housing Target by Half a Million Homes
Analysis suggests the government will fall short of its 1.5 million pledge, with completions at a six-year low.
The Labour government is on track to miss its housing construction target by 500,000 homes, according to an analysis of official figures. The Land Value Calculator predicts that fewer than one million homes will be built during the current parliamentary term, falling one-third short of the 1.5 million pledged.
This projection follows recent comments from Housing Secretary Angela Rayner, who acknowledged a "slim chance" of meeting the 2029 target. Official estimates for homes built last year have been revised downward to 196,900, indicating England is 223,000 homes behind schedule.
The analysis suggests the shortfall grows by 282 homes daily, projecting to exceed 250,000 homes between Christmas and New Year. To meet the target, England would need to build 1,041 homes per day until July 2029, nearly double the current rate of 539 homes daily.
Completions for the year ending June 2026 represent the lowest figures since 2016, with homes granted planning permission down 30% over the past four years.
The Ministry of Housing, Communities and Government (MHCLG) adjusted its estimate for the previous year's completions from 199,500 to 196,900. The total number of homes built since the election is now estimated at 437,900, significantly lower than the approximately 660,000 that would be required to stay on track.
While housebuilding starts have increased by 15% in the past year, the analysis attributes about two-thirds of this rise to recovery in London after a period of stagnation. Excluding London, starts across the rest of the country have increased by approximately 5%, making the July 2029 target unlikely to be met.
The number of homes granted planning permission has fallen by 12% in the last year to 212,000, and by 30% over four years. The analysis concludes that homes not yet granted planning permission are unlikely to be completed by 2029.
A spokesperson for landvaluecalculator.co.uk stated that the government is "on course to miss its flagship pledge by a third." They added that while ministers can point to increased starts, completions are at a six-year low and the stock of homes with planning permission has diminished.
A spokesperson for MHCLG asserted the government's determination to increase building, citing a 20% rise in new housing starts compared to the previous year, with a 298% increase in London alone. They described the 1.5 million target as ambitious but indicated that reforms are beginning to show results in the housing pipeline.